I Have Good News For You

Why are sanctions necessary?

Leader of the European Belarus civil campaign Andrei Sannikov spoke at the Polish Economic Forum, which was held on September 6-8 in the city of Karpacz. The website Charter97.org gives the text of his speech in full:

“I have news for you, for some it’s good, for some it is not so good: sanctions work!

Dictator Lukashenka himself confirmed this by talking about amnesty, claiming the need to correct excesses. That is, he refers to about 50 thousand arrested during the period after the start of the protests, and about 4-5 thousand political prisoners who remain in prisons and colonies in Belarus, as “excesses”. He says this only because the sanctions started working. They started working recently, around June. And already at the beginning of September we hear about the amnesty.

I am, probably, a veteran of the discussion about sanctions, it has been going on for a quarter of a century with varying success in relation to Belarus. Therefore, I didn’t have any illusions or hopes that the West was thinking solely of how to help the democratic society of Belarus, how to help Belarus become free. It was never like this, and it is not like this now.

However, they do understand pragmatic aspects. And now I want to talk pragmatically, in particular, what “prevented” the imposition of sanctions, what arguments were put forward?

First, they insisted that Lukashenka should be used against Russia, they wanted to tear him away from Putin. It seems that such an opportunity has arisen. Someone in the West decided after the crackdown on the square in 2010, after the mild sanctions of 2011-2014: “Let’s play this game now.” So they played it, and look what they ended up with. Lukashenka provided the entire territory of Belarus for Russia to use as a military springboard for unleashing a large-scale war in Europe. Thus, I hope, this argument is no longer a pro for not imposing sanctions.

The second argument, more cynical, is business. The West has always had business interests in Belarus, which lives in a dictatorship. Lofty words were spoken about human rights and democracy, and business-to-business under gray schemes, or sometimes under black schemes, went on as usual. Why hide the sin? We all remember very well the amazing growth in trade with Europe during the sanctions: Polish apples, for example, and so on.

It seems to me that these conversations ended with the beginning of the war. Business with the dictatorship of Lukashenka, an accomplice of aggression in Ukraine, is direct assistance to the Kremlin.

Why are sanctions needed?

Again, I will note purely practical things, without any talk about the salvation of the soul. First: the issue of security. Since 2009, when the first large-scale military maneuvers on the territory of Belarus after the collapse of the Soviet Union — Zapad-2009 — took place, we, the European Belarus civil campaign, were saying that preparations were underway for a military invasion of Europe. We talked about the vulnerability of Poland, we talked about Russia's plans to cut off the Baltic countries from Europe, to break through the Suwalki corridor from Belarus to Kaliningrad. Then the same large-scale similar military exercises took place in 2013, 2017, 2021. And it was all preparation for the invasion.

That is, if Europe and the West are really concerned about security issues, then sanctions help resolve these issues, help curb dictators, and prevent a threat to international security. And vice versa, as we see in the case of Belarus, the absence of sanctions confirms the belief of dictators in their own impunity.

Secondly, the sanctions against the regime are in favor of Belarus. Today, Lukashenka's power rests only on violence, on the repressive apparatus. Any revenues to the budget due to the easing of sanctions will be instantly absorbed by the repressive apparatus to maintain the level of violence in the country. Now it should be clear to everyone, including business in the West, that reforms in Belarus will begin only after the Lukashenka regime leaves the stage. That's when investments, active trade, assistance in reforms will be needed. That's when foreign business will have real opportunities in Belarus.

Third, sanctions are necessary to release political prisoners. Sanctions are absolutely moral. To be honest, I don't even know how to call what is happening in Belarus today. I have already said that we do not have 1,200-1,300 political prisoners, but somewhere around 4-5 thousand people who are imprisoned on political sentences. Of course, you will not find any political articles in the Criminal Code of Belarus, and you know this very well. It's like in the Soviet Union: all the political ones are criminals. Therefore, it is absolutely moral to impose tougher sanctions and demand the release of all political prisoners.

I want to remind everyone of one fact and warn against naivety. The talk about amnesty, which Lukashenka has now started and with which he wants to hook the West again, like using amnesty as a bait, is not new. After the dispersal of the Square in 2010, there were demands for the imposition of sanctions, and sanctions were introduced. The sanctions were tied to the release of all political prisoners.

When the sanctions became more or less sensitive, Lukashenka started talking about an amnesty. It was 2012. There were conversations, certain numbers were called. In the end, about a thousand prisoners were released. Not a single political one. No one! Although there were several dozen then. Now he is playing the same game. He needs money, he needs resources.

Today, a terrible war is underway in Europe, and it is only through this prism that sanctions against dictatorial regimes should be perceived today. Because it is dictatorial regimes that today provide tension, lack of security, and are a military threat. Therefore, if sanctions are not imposed, if dictatorial regimes are not deprived of resources, the war will continue. If sanctions were introduced in 2020 immediately after the arrests, dispersal, beatings, and killings of people, then there would be no war.

I am convinced that if Lukashenka's regime had been seriously hit with sanctions then, they would have prevented a big war in Europe. Therefore, I support imposing tough sanctions, the toughest possible sanctions. I support imposing honest sanctions. Why do I say “honest sanctions”? We hear that “we are in solidarity with Belarus, we support human rights, democracy”. We know that, for example, Lithuania makes very tough statements about the Lukashenka regime, but today Lithuania ranks first in Europe among the trading partners of the Lukashenka regime.

There’s one more thing I mean. Democratic countries still cannot part with their honorary consuls, who are Lukashenka's wallets. One of them is the Honorary Consul of Iceland in Belarus Alexander Moshensky, he is still the Honorary Consul of Iceland in Belarus. The second is the “tobacco king” Pavel Topuzidis, he is still the honorary consul of Greece in Belarus. That's what I mean by honest sanctions. If we want to avoid an escalation of the war in Europe, its repetition, we must get rid of dictatorships, first of all, Lukashenka's dictatorship. Because it was this dictatorship that provided the Kremlin with a foothold for aggression against Ukraine.

Thus, sanctions help to solve both security issues by depriving dictators of resources, and save lives, since they are directly related to the demand for the release of all political prisoners.”

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