Grigorij Mesežnikov: Strange Interdependence Exists Between Putin And Lukashenka

Without the support of the Kremlin, the Belarusian regime will not survive.

How will the weakening of Russia affect the Lukashenka regime? Slovak political scientist and president of the Institute for Public Affairs (IVO, Bratislava) Grigorij Mesežnikov answers questions from Charter97.org.

— It would take a miracle for Putin to sign any kind of a peace agreement, this man is incapable of this. Of course, one can theoretically imagine that Russia would sign something like this, but it will be without Putin, it will be someone else, another group that will take his place. It's impossible to do it with him. If you look at all the agreements signed by Putin, they were unfavourable to the opposite side. The Minsk agreements for example, when he benefited because of his advantage. He really could kill Ukrainians, destroy the Ukrainian army, and so on. Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande contributed to this agreement, and it did not function at all later.

What could be the consequences for Lukashenka? If the power corporation that is now in Moscow weakens and loses some of its leading representatives, including Putin, then support for Lukashenka will also weaken. We have a strange interdependence between Putin and Lukashenka in this case. Lukashenka is still afraid of Putin, but without the support of the Kremlin, his regime will not survive.

If, for any reason, Putin is forced to leave, something happens to him, then the new Russian government will have to demonstrate a new attitude towards both Ukraine and Belarus. This will be an opportunity for them to show themselves to the West that they are different. The new power will have to refuse aggressive actions concerning Ukraine. And then it will demonstrate its commitment to the idea of preserving the independence of neighbouring states, that they no longer have such aggressive encroachments, that they do not want to annex Belarus, and so on.

I again proceed from the lessons of history. When Stalin died, that gang, those people who were equally responsible for all the crimes of his regime, tried to demonstrate to the West their commitment to democracy, to peace, to all sorts of principles that they had never observed before. Lavrentiy Beria even offered to accept the Soviet Union into NATO.

Any change in Moscow that would mean a weakening of its power, especially Putin's departure, would weaken Lukashenka as well. Therefore, he is interested in Putin's support, but he also wants to maintain his power. The realisation in the current situation is a problem, of course, for Lukashenka, that is why he rushes about. First, he promises something to Putin, then he makes strange statements, but he does not send troops yet, although he provides territory and infrastructure for the attack on Ukraine. This means direct responsibility for all the crimes committed by the Russian army there.