29 March 2024, Friday, 2:19
Support
the website
Sim Sim,
Charter 97!
Categories

Wiktor Ross: Lukashenka Will Lose To Belarusian Opposition

18
Wiktor Ross: Lukashenka Will Lose To Belarusian Opposition
WIKTOR ROSS
PHOTO: CHARTER97.ORG

The regime's economy is already in a disastrous situation.

The Ukrainian counter-offensive is successful. How do the successes of the AFU affect the political situation in Russia? What can Lukashenka expect if the Kremlin continues to lose influence in the region?

Charter97.org spoke to former Polish ambassador to Moldova and Armenia, former ministerial advisor and head of the political section at the Polish Embassy in Russia, lecturer at Warsaw University and friend of free Belarus Wiktor Ross about this and more.

- How does Ukraine's counter-offensive affect the political situation in Russia? Do you see a division into "war" and "peace" parties in the Kremlin?

- It should be taken into account that so far it is difficult to identify people who belong to one party or another. Right now it is more obvious what is going on among oligarchs. Russian businessmen are fleeing Russia and the Kremlin is luring them back. It is hard to say who in Russia is on the warpath side and who is not.

It is clear that there are "hawks" like Girkin. However, this is not the Kremlin, but simply a publicist who presents his views stating that Russia is waging war in the wrong way, that total mobilization must be carried out and then some kind of success can be achieved. At the moment we are seeing some unclear actions of Russian commanders, who are not applying any clear strategy at the moment.

In addition to Girkin, there is Prilepin, who, incidentally, is somehow related to Surkov. However Surkov has disappeared, he is not in sight at all now. He used to be a very influential political figure who determined policy towards Ukraine in 2014, but now he is no longer seen anywhere.

It is already clear that the Kremlin will be in disarray now. They will be thinking there how to change the situation. However, it is still difficult to determine exactly who is in the "war party" and who is not.

- Have you been watching how the narratives of Russian propaganda change? What will the propagandists offer the common Russians now, when the Russian army is in real trouble?

- The propagandists have now fallen into a hysterical tone, but none of them are saying that we should wind up the whole thing, on the contrary. They have changed their tone in the sense that they cannot contradict the very obvious facts: that Russia is losing and the Ukrainian counter-offensive is advancing with great success. This they cannot help but admit.

The propagandists here constitute exactly what the "party of war" is all about. They promote ideas of total mobilization, of increasing the number of Russian soldiers. They even have thoughts of tactical nuclear strikes. But on the whole, the narrative is changing to one of defeatist and hysterical.

- Should we expect mobilization in the Russian Federation if there are problems at the front?

- I believe it is not possible. The Russian army manages to form new battalions in different regions of the country with great difficulty. Usually they are manned only by one third. All possible forms are being used in order to increase the personnel, cannon fodder so to speak. The Russian command is even trying to recruit criminals from places of detention.

It is worth considering that everyone will try to avoid mobilization. This will raise the level of corruption in the army because you have to pay not to be drafted. Putin has given orders to increase the number of soldiers by 137,000, but so far not even a third of that number has been mobilized. And these are completely untrained people. Such a situation will only cause chaos in military operations, no progress can be expected from them.

So the people who until now have not been on Putin's side, but simply had a neutral attitude and were not interested in the war, in case a general mobilization is announced, they will speak out against it. It will already affect them personally, literally every family. That is why this is a very risky step for Putin, I don`t think he would dare to do it at all.

- The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia is escalated now. The CSTO, which is chaired by Lukashenka, didn't dare to bring in troops, even though Yerevan asked for help. Were they scared?

- I know that the shelling of border Armenian villages is taking place, but for the CSTO, the Kazakh example may still be fresh, when in addition to the Russians, forces from other countries, including Armenia, were involved. However, all this led to the situation that soon, apparently because of China's position, the Russians left. President Tokayev, unexpectedly, was very serious, giving a week for troops to be withdrawn from Kazakhstan.

I think that Turkey may also influence the situation in the sense that if the CSTO entered into this conflict, relations with Ankara would become very strained, and Putin would not like it very much, as well as Lukashenka. I think this may be the factor holding them back.

- During the protests in Kazakhstan, which you recalled, Lukashenka decided to send his military there. Will he send Belarusian soldiers to Ukraine?

- Lukashenka is simply pursuing his long-standing policy of dodging final decisions. Certainly he does not want to be completely taken over by the Kremlin, to become a mere Russian province.

At the same time, since his regime is being subjected to Western sanctions, the economy is already in a disastrous situation. Lukashenka has to somehow manoeuvre in this situation. Putin is not satisfied with this, he would like the Belarusian dictator to be more compliant. I think that Lukashenka will do nothing more than provide his territory for Russian guns, which are bombarding Ukraine.

- What can Lukashenka expect if Russia continues to lose influence in the region and loses the war in Ukraine?

- As we know, without Russian support, without low energy prices and so on, the Lukashenka regime will simply fall. If he has to enter into a confrontation with the Belarusian opposition, he will lose here, it is obvious. Therefore, Lukashenka will try to send some signals to the West, that he is prepared to negotiate with the European Union and so on. To give up power for him means to give up his life.

So far Russia has not lost this war, let's say. It could be a long process. So we will see how Lukashenka will act in the coming months.

Write your comment 18

Follow Charter97.org social media accounts