Roman Bezsmertnyi: Lukashenka's Fate Is Sealed

It's time to address the issues of the future of Belarus.

Ukrainian politician and diplomat, former Ambassador of Ukraine to Belarus Roman Bezsmertnyi in an interview with Charter97.org commented on the latest developments in the southeast of Ukraine and Lukashenka's role in the nuclear blackmail of the Kremlin.

— The Armed Forces of Ukraine launched a counteroffensive in the south of Ukraine. What are your estimations of the situation in the Kherson axis?

— Judging by yesterday's statement by the General Staff, there is no counteroffensive. There are heavy positional battles. The essence of these battles is that the task is to push the enemy out of the entire territory of Ukraine. There are separate battles along all front lines. Whether they are a counteroffensive or not is a question for the General Staff. The final information did not mention a counteroffensive. What we heard during the day, the source of this was either social media, or individuals, commentators, or some military units gave incomplete, dissected information. Therefore, from the point of view of the official position as of yesterday, there is no talk of any counteroffensive. Even the comments of the Pentagon speak of positional battles in certain areas. This is what we can state with any degree of certainty.

The shelling of the occupiers' ammunition depots with the use of multiple launch rocket systems continues. They continue to destroy the weapons and manpower of the enemy, the bases that provide the material and resource reserves of the grouping of Russian troops in Ukraine. We can talk about this, there are official statistics and so on.

— Experts note a number of important points of the success of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Shoigu was removed from the leadership of the Russian army, nuclear blackmail intensified, and at the same time, the Kremlin allegedly "wants negotiations". How did the failures of the Russian army in Ukraine affect the tactics and strategy of the Kremlin?

— Information about the removal of Shoigu came from British intelligence, so it should be taken as information from British intelligence, and not as Putin's decision. Shoigu has been removed from command of the armed forces for the third time in my lifetime. For a deeper understanding: the General Staff leads the armed forces, and Shoigu is the Minister of Defence. According to Russian legislation, he has a certain influence on the General Staff and command and control, but this is not direct control. Therefore, we must bear this in mind.

Regarding the successes of the armed forces along the front line: if we consider the recent time, then every day the Armed Forces of Ukraine liberate about five settlements. Therefore, I cannot say that a breakthrough took place. I can say that the Ukrainian troops are advancing, especially in the southeast axis. As can be seen from all, the more weapons are supplied within the framework of the Rammstein format, the more successful advancing we have and the more damage we deal to the Russian army.

In recent weeks, Russia has been using nuclear blackmail, talking about an explosion at the Zaporizhzhia NPP, in every way inciting Lukashenka to talk about rearming tactical aircraft to carry nuclear weapons. By this fact, you understand that just as Russia has brought Ukraine to the negotiations on food exports, there has also been an attempt to bring Ukraine to the negotiating table over nuclear security. They even used the meeting of the UN Security Council for this purpose. The essence of these maneuvers was aimed at making a pause in the development of the situation on the front line through some kind of negotiation process, fixing it. This time should be used for rearmament, mobilization of personnel, training for work with Iranian drones, and so on, to restore the group in order to continue attacks on Ukraine.

Ukraine correctly reacted with a phrase, I don’t remember who said it from the president’s entourage, that negotiations were underway in southern Ukraine. The only way for talks is to strike at the enemy. From my point of view, it is impossible to talk about negotiations now, and the President reacted absolutely correctly to this. Let the occupiers leave the territory of Ukraine, and then you can think about some kind of negotiations.

— You mentioned that Putin was highly involved in Lukashenka's nuclear blackmail. Is it highly likely that the Belarusian dictator will use nuclear weapons?

— Lukashenka said that Belarusian aircraft had been modernized to carry nuclear weapons. But he doesn't understand what he is saying. From the point of view of international law, this violates the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. This is a severe issue since even peaceful nuclear programs are regulated very seriously today. This is evidenced by the recent events around the Zaporizhzhia NPP and the IAEA mission to Ukraine.

The fact that Lukashenka spoke like that was clearly inspired by the Kremlin. It is possible to combine recent events: the situation at the Zaporizhzhia NPP, the meeting of the Security Council, Lukashenka's statements, and the statement of the UN Secretary-General on the renunciation of nuclear tests, not to mention the work around Iran's nuclear program, the statement of the Israeli Defense Minister, and so on. In fact, an agenda of nuclear safety is being hyped up today. The Kremlin needs it in order to convince Kyiv to come to negotiations and accept the Russian position.

But one must understand that Lukashenka does not realize what he is talking about. There can be no talk of any nuclear weapons in Belarus. If it will be placed in Belarus, then only as a Russian weapon and only under the control of the leadership of the Russian Federation. All this shows that today a separate information space on nuclear safety issues is being created. This is used as an argument in various situations: military, military-political, military-strategic, economic, and so on. Moreover, this issue is connected with the development of the situation around the energy fate of Europe in the cold period of 1922-1923.

— How will Lukashenka's position change if the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is successful? What should the Belarusian dictator prepare for?

— The end of this war is being postponed due to the fact that they do not use military force against Russian bases located in Belarus, to the Russian military units that are shelling Ukraine from the territory of Belarus. This is confirmed by the actions of Ukraine in Crimea because the status of Crimea and Belarus in relation to Russia does not differ. Self-proclaimed leaders, governments and so on, all this is under Russian control. From the point of view of international law, the law of war, the Ukrainian army is not obliged to sort out ways to strike at the enemy. The fact that Russian units in Belarus are not under attack is a big mistake.

— Recently, there have been many attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the rear of the Russian army, including targets in Crimea. At the same time, explosions took place at the Russian military air base near Homiel. What awaits Lukashenka if he escalates against the background of the defeats of the Russian army in southern Ukraine? Can the dictator feel safe in his residences?

— Lukashenka's fate is decided, a tribunal awaits him, if, of course, he survives. This can't even be discussed. Another case is the fate of Belarus, the Belarusian people. It is better to think more about the future of Belarus. When I talk about Belarus, I don't mean Lukashenka, and when I talk about Lukashenka, I don't mean Belarus, but his henchmen.

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