Alexander Khara: Situation Changed Dramatically After Putin's Proclamations About Nuclear Weapons In Belarus

The US and Europe must respond.

Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin said that Putin is trying to conduct secret negotiations with Europe and the United States. What can such activity of the Kremlin testify to? The Charter97.org website talked about this with Alexander Khara, Ukrainian diplomat and political scientist, expert of the Maidan of Foreign Affairs Foundation.

— Naturally, if we look at what is happening at the front, then this is definitely a 'victorious war' for Russia. In the last couple of weeks, there has been news disturbing Moscow about how Ukraine is using the received HIMARS MLRS and missiles, giving us the opportunity to strike deep behind enemy lines. Obviously, the hidden mobilization of Russian forces is not very effective. They have a lot of armours, but it is already difficult to gather 'meat', as 'women still give birth', especially combat-ready ones. We see more than 35,000 killed occupiers, the destroyed Moskva cruiser, and the best units of the Russian military special forces are badly battered despite all this bravado and Putin’s words that 'they haven’t started anything yet'. Of course, this can not be called some kind of success.

Add the issue of economic sanctions there. If we are talking about oil and gas, then the situation is rather complicated. Now it is absolutely shameful that Germany is violating sanctions, inclining Canada to this also, forcing them to return the turbine for Nord Stream. Putin is trying to get out of such an encirclement, and isolation. After all, no one communicates with him, except for his friend Mr Schröder.

Therefore, Putin is trying to hush everything up, to find some kind of compromise. Moreover, Europe, including Germany, can expect a cold winter. Also, the food crisis intensified by Russia will hit Europeans both directly through prices and indirectly through a large wave of refugees. Therefore, Putin has an argument that he "can make the world even worse". Therefore, he would like to record some of his victories in Ukraine, the seizure of certain territories. He can try to do it.

It is unlikely that any official contacts are taking place in the US. They possibly keep contact with Europeans: traditional Italians, French and Germans, who always say that bridges must be preserved. It is obvious that there are quite a lot of such people there, and it is also quite likely that such intermediaries will try to offer some kind of plan to end the war with the so-called preservation of Putin's face. Therefore, I will not be surprised if some diplomats are mobilized for contact with the governments of the countries that I have named.

— Is it dangerous that Western countries will try to pressure Ukraine into negotiating with the Kremlin?

— I am not sure that there is any great possibility of that. The United States of America is our first and most important assistant. Their position and politics show that they are not going to put pressure on Ukraine and are not going to solve any issues for Ukraine. Joseph Biden constantly repeats this, this is not just a figure of speech. We see this in terms of the weapons that are provided to us, and financial and humanitarian assistance. It can also be seen on the diplomatic front. We saw how, during the G20 meeting, virtually all representatives of the democratic countries of the world criticized Russia for its war, for the fact that it is also creating a food crisis. There was not a single meeting with Lavrov, he simply retreated from there.

I have no reason to expect that the Americans will put pressure on Ukraine or refuse to help us. They adhere to the correct line from Kyiv’s point of view.

As for the Europeans, the situation is more complicated there. But they can't put pressure either. Mr Scholz, for example, has already said that Russia should not win this war. Unfortunately, he does not speak like the heads of other states: Poland, the Baltic countries, and Great Britain. They have an absolutely clear position that they must do everything possible for Ukraine to win. Protecting the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of Ukraine is in the interests not only of the Ukrainians themselves but of all Europeans in general. Because everyone is well aware that the next step will be actions directed against other states.

— Do you think it is possible at some stage for NATO countries to enter the war?

—There is very little chance of that, unfortunately. There is the concept of nuclear deterrence, this policy works in both directions. Moscow and Washington understand that they have the means to destroy the world even several times. The second point is that deterrence is based on the will and readiness to use these nuclear weapons, to destroy the world and themselves in the case of a threat. This understanding of the destruction of the world is holding back the other side from taking certain steps. Unfortunately, the Russians' actions are more effective in terms of nuclear deterrence. They use their nuclear card for threats.

Do you know Putin's latest statements about the possibility of deploying Iskander-M on the territory of Belarus, which is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead? This is a significant escalation that is fundamentally changing the situation in this part of Europe. It would be correct for the Americans to say that if nuclear weapons are deployed in Belarus, then American missiles will be deployed in one or more European countries as well.

We are actually repeating the history of the Cold War. Any action, provocation or nuclear intimidation voiced by the Russians must be adequately responded to by the United States and its allies. Because the only way the Russians understand is to use force. Secondly, they understand that there will be reciprocity. There is no point in deploying new assets, and new nuclear missiles in Europe for the Americans. However, since the Russians are provoking, the Americans should say that we do not exclude such a possibility, we will respond in a similar way.

The point is that the Russians actually paralyzed some actions in Washington, by intimidating the world and, above all, the United States, with the possible use of nuclear weapons. And this makes NATO troops' deployment impossible on our territory even if planes are handed over to us from Poland. This moment shows that there is Washington's unwillingness to aggravate and escalate the strategic level in order to achieve certain goals in Europe and Ukraine, in particular. Therefore, we should not expect that NATO will somehow actively protect the rights of Ukraine. From the very beginning, both the US and NATO indicated that they were not going to be a party to the conflict. Another thing is that many countries, not from NATO or the UN, but as individual members, help Ukraine in accordance with international law, based on Article 51 of the UN Charter.

— How could Ukraine today more effectively use the potential of a free Belarus fighting against Putin?

— This is a rather difficult question because the Belarusians, who percept this war as a liberation war for their state, have taken up arms and are currently in Ukraine. They are fighting as a part of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

The second way is the sabotage that the Belarusians carried out on their territory in order to block the supply of Russian weapons and manpower to Ukraine. The third way is to work with fellow citizens.

I understand that there is also the KGB, and there is state propaganda, but no one has cancelled word of mouth. It is important to work with the population, to spread anti-war sentiments, especially among those who may be ordered to join the occupying forces and invade Ukraine.

Morale is an extremely important thing. We would not want to fight with the Belarusians, not only because it takes our strength or draws attention from other sectors of the front. Most importantly, this will be the first time in history that Belarusians and Ukrainians will kill each other. Obviously, we would not want this. We go back a long way, we and Russians, and everything is clear there, this is an imperial nation. They believe that there are no Belarusians or Ukrainians, that they are just some kind of 'misguided Russians'. This is a kind of a colonial mind. If you look at Lukashenka's position, then Belarus is now actually a colony of Russia. Obviously, this is not what Belarusians deserve.

Therefore, it is necessary to fight with weapons, not to give the Russians an opportunity to strengthen and use Belarus for military aggression.

Naturally, we would also like to see a united powerful opposition that would give some development after Lukashenka. Do not wait until Lukashenka is gone, but show the Belarusians that there is an alternative and it is much more attractive than being a colony under the rule of an illegitimate ruler who stained his hands in the blood of Belarusians and not only Belarusians.

We remember that Belarus, as a modern state, is an accomplice to military aggression. This is a very significant factor. The entire Belarusian ideology of recent years was based on the fact that war is bad, and that Belarus was one of the most affected republics of the Soviet Union during the Second World War. Actually, Belarus has become a co-aggressor in this unjust and criminal war.

Empires have always used enslaved peoples to deal with other enslaved peoples. Also, I would not like the Belarusians, who now do not have freedom, and who fight on the side of the imperialists, who want to deprive the people of Ukraine of their freedom.

— Do you think that the peace treaty between Ukraine, Russia and Western countries, which the latter could also sign, contain a clause about Belarus? For example, the withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of the country and free elections.

— Document that we will sign with the Russians will depend on the achievement of our goals. Obviously, our main goal is the withdrawal of the Russian occupation forces from Ukraine, including the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol, also Donetsk and Luhansk, the Kharkiv region, Kherson and Mykolaiv. This is simply not discussed, otherwise, we can simply sign a truce, a temporary ceasefire. Thus, if we are talking about a ceasefire, then we cannot add any big demands on Russia there, and they, of course, will not sign it.

If we are talking about the ideal scenario, when we defeat Russia, then in Belarus there should be no forces and means that threaten not only us but also NATO and the European Union - the military contingent of the Russian Federation, Iskanders, not to mention strategic nuclear bombers. We remember, that Putin’s support and force were demonstrated for Lukashenka during the migratory crisis when they brought refugees from the Near East to the borders of Poland and Lithuania and they arranged special operations. At that time, strategic bombers flew along the borders of Belarus.

This is unacceptable both for Ukraine and for Europeans. The Minister of Defense of Ukraine also recently spoke about this, that in fact, Russia should withdraw not only from our territory, but to a certain distance (relatively speaking - 100 or 200 kilometres from the borders of Ukraine) its strike forces and means.

Obviously, in such an ideal scenario, Belarus should be nuclear-free and free of the occupying troops of the Russian Federation.

In Ukraine we do not recognize the impostor Lukashenka, it is obvious that most of the Belarusians do not recognize him either. We understand that it is impossible to knock him down now, given the power apparatus and the support of Russia, by some democratic means.

However, there was such a thesis that democracies do not fight among themselves from an ideological point of view. Therefore, we do not want to fight with Belarusians and want to be good neighbours, to realize the enormous economic potential that we have, we want to see a legally and legitimately elected head of state in Belarus. We want to see a balance of the branches of power there, and not a super-presidential republic with a decorative role of its parliament. Obviously, we want to see freedom of speech there, which has been gone for a long time, we want to see a fair trial there, which serves primarily the law, and not some tyrants, and so on.

The concept of a free, indivisible Europe at peace is impossible without Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova and Georgia joining NATO and the European Union. I understand that it now sounds wild, especially with this regime, especially with the unwillingness of some European countries to see Ukraine as part of NATO. However, from a strategic point of view, this is the only way to ensure long-term security and prosperity on the entire European continent.

And this is the only chance for Russia to become a normal country when it will not be able to expand to the West, and will not have any colonies such as Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova and Georgia. Then the Russians will have no choice but to clear their Augean Putin's stables, and go about their business, their lives. Then we will have more options for development, but not for preparations for the next war.

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