Andrei Sannikov: We'll See Both War Turning Point And Collapse Of Dictatorial Regimes

Assessments by the leader of the European Belarus for 2023.

Did the Belarusians get closer to freedom in the past year? Will the West find something to oppose the dictators’ community? What will be the developments of 2023?

Charter97.org sums up the results of the outgoing year with Andrei Sannikov, the leader of the European Belarus Civil Campaign:

– I would say that this is the worst year for Belarus and our region. First of all, because of the war in Ukraine, which began in Belarus in 2020 with the most inhuman and brutal repressions that continue to this day. This is the suppression of Belarusian protests that led to the war in Ukraine. It is clear that only the regime of Lukashenka, who willingly gave the territory of Belarus under the Russian jackboot, made it possible for Putin to give the order to attack Ukraine.

It's clear what the main events were. If we talk about Belarus, this is a huge number of political prisoners, more than five thousand. The repressions destroyed the very fabric of life, which in Belarus was already rotten.

Obviously, it is the war in which the Lukashenka regime, a criminal regime dangerous for Belarusians and the entire region, showed itself in full glory.

– On the other hand, the year was also difficult for the regimes of Putin and Lukashenka. Do you think 2022 brought Belarusians closer to freedom or moved us away from it?

– On the one hand, it was the most difficult year, on the other, this pus abscess broke through. It broke terribly, with the war in Ukraine and repressions in Belarus. However, it became clear that it needed to be disposed of, moreover, surgically, since all the treatments that had been used so far only led to the fact that this abscess grew. The regimes of Putin and Lukashenka took advantage of the fact that they tried to treat this double abscess with persuasion, like old witches, and not with modern means and sources.

Now we need normal doctors who should understand that you need to eliminate the essence of the problem, and not deal with secondary consequences. These doctors are in the US and NATO. I hope Biden will not repeat the mistakes of his former boss Obama who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in advance but withdrew the United States from a leadership position of democracy and human rights. His indecision has added to crises in many parts of the world. Today, the US and the West are showing greater willingness to eliminate the obvious threat.

After all, what happened made it possible to realize how dangerous these regimes are. Gradually, the realization came that security requires serious expenses. These costs are in any case incommensurable with the victims of the Ukrainians. It is necessary to significantly tighten sanctions, which, of course, have a negative impact on the economy and the Western countries themselves, but this is the price that must be paid for security.

– This year there has been a clear consolidation of not only the regimes of Putin and Lukashenka but also the regimes of the ayatollahs in Iran and North Korea. Dictators exchange weapons and provide their territory to each other. Are you optimistic about the reaction of the West to these processes?

– I'm assessing the situation rationally because democracy and the countries that represent it no longer have any ways of retreating and manoeuvring. If the boil in the Kremlin is not eliminated, the war will continue and will flare up with renewed vigour and spread to the EU. Furthermore, the alliance between the two criminal regimes and between Putin and the ayatollahs, cannot be allowed to grow stronger. Let's not forget that there is a people's revolution going on in Iran. The people of Iran need support. The overthrow of the regime of religious fanatics in Iran is not a task of tomorrow but of today, and then the problem of Iranian drones used by Russia against Ukraine will disappear by itself.

Why do I say that I am approaching today's situation from a rational point of view? Because there was simply no such level of danger awareness and ways to eliminate it previously.

The West thought that it was possible to “dodge” it: to do business, to make profit and support dictatorships. But this is impossible, it inevitably leads to war. We are already on the verge of a nuclear war. As for our region, there was no reaction to all serious Russian aggressions: Georgia in 2008, Belarus in 2010, Ukraine in 2014, Belarus in 2020 and Ukraine in 2022.

The time interval between the wrong judgments and the negative consequences has been greatly reduced. If we are talking about Ukraine, then the war will erupt with new force if they make any concessions to the Kremlin. As soon as they make concessions to the ayatollahs, and do not support the people of Iran, who are fighting this regime, they will receive not only deliveries of drones to Russia, but also to the explosive Iranian region.

Everything has become very close, and the price of the erroneous policy of the West has increased many times over. I hope that this new circumstance will make it possible to make responsible decisions, despite the West's frequent reluctance to act decisively.

– The year began with protests in Kazakhstan. You also spoke about a new wave of liberation from imperial influence in our region. How did the war in Ukraine influence the process?

– This is part of the process. The collapse of the USSR did not mean the collapse of the empire with its satellites and instant freedom for our region. The fact that Ukraine was moving very decisively towards Europe, democracy and economic reforms provoked Russia. It is clear that this struggle continues. It includes resistance from medieval regimes but will lead to victory.

– Who are the main heroes and anti-heroes of the outgoing year?

– Volunteers who are fighting for Ukraine and our political prisoners who were thrown into prisons for their beliefs and their struggle for freedom are the heroes of Belarusians.

These are the people of Ukraine. They are showing incredible courage and heroism in their fight against invaders.

Anti-heroes, of course, are dictators - Putin and Lukashenko. They are two senile old criminals, physically, mentally and morally disabled persons, who cling to power with their last strength.

– What is your forecast for the next year?

– I'm expecting a turning point. First, Ukraine has done something incredible. Ukrainians are the driving force of this final liberation of Eastern Europe from despotism, empire and dictatorships. Despite the surprisingly unfavourable situation for Ukraine, the multiple numerical superiorities of Russian troops, the Ukrainians managed to withstand and even go on the counteroffensive. Thus, they changed the world's agenda.

I would say that our political prisoners, our guys from the European Belarus, Palina Sharenda-Panasiuk, as well as Mikalai Statkevich, Pavel Seviarynets, Ales Bialiatski, Ihar Alinevich, Mikalai Autukhovich are also showing great courage. A large number of people, because we are reading about new sentences, for example, to the rail partisans.

The everyday repressions that the insane regime unleashes on the Belarusians testify to the animal fear experienced by the dictator and his entourage.

They also testify to the fact that the regime rejects the whole nation. The punishers clearly demonstrate this by putting people of all ages and all professions behind bars. This madness even emphasizes the totally critical state of the regime.

Therefore, I am sure that next year we will see a turning point in the Ukrainian war of liberation in which our soldiers are fighting, and the collapse of dictatorial regimes.

If you like this article, you can support the website Charter97.org

MULTI-CURRENCY ACCOUNT FOR ASSISTANCE:

Bank's name: Bank Millennium S.A.
Address: ul. Stanislawa Zaryna, 2A, 02-593, Warszawa
IBAN: PL 97 1160 2202 0000 0002 1671 1123
SWIFT: BIGBPLPW
Name of the account holder: Fundacja “KARTA ‘97”
Purpose/title of payment: Donation for statuary aims

You can contact us by the e-mail [email protected]