Natallia Radzina: Belarus Will Join The EU And NATO Together With Ukraine

What will Lukashenka's end be like?

Lately, people in Ukraine are talking more and more about the threat of a new offensive from Belarus. What does the Belarusian military think about the possible attack? How does the Belarusian opposition react to the latest developments? What will be the end of Lukashenka and the future of Belarus? Natallia Radzina, the editor-in-chief of the Charter97.org website, told the Glavcom Ukrainian news publisher about it.

“It's important to understand that Belarusians are against this war”

— According to various estimates, both Belarusian and Western sociologists who conducted polls of Belarusian citizens in July this year, from 3% to 11% of Belarusians support the war with Ukraine (the latter figure was obtained taking into account the answers of rural residents). What is the situation now?

— The situation is the same. The vast majority of Belarusians continue to speak out against war, of course, and oppose the war. Even if it doesn't happen in public today. The original reason for this is the impossibility of any open disagreement with the Lukashenka regime.

Open resistance is punished with arrests and huge prison sentences. Nevertheless, we know for sure that 85-90% of Belarusians are against the war in Ukraine. In fact, the Belarusian society has demonstrated its solidarity with Ukraine quite a number of times.

However, my fellow citizens were simply thrown into jail even for the most innocent manifestations of solidarity like Ukrainian symbols that they had with them, for online posts of solidarity or for hanging Ukrainian flags on their private cars.

It is important to understand and know that the Belarusians do not really support this war.

— What does the Belarusian army think about the war?

— The Belarusian army is a part of society. We are studying the sentiments among the Belarusian troops and communicating with them. As for me, I am the daughter of a Belarusian military man. It’s true, he has retired already. And I can say that the Belarusian military does not want to fight in Ukraine.

The soldiers of the Kastus Kalinouski Regiment, who are fighting for Ukraine today, say that 8 out of 10 Belarusian soldiers do not want to fight in your country. I have no doubts about this. I know for certain that the Belarusians want to fight neither for Lukashenka nor for Putin, they do not want to fight for some Russian painful imperial fantasies.

Therefore, if the Belarusian army is somehow forced to join this war and cross the border, then I am sure that the vast majority of the military will surrender to Ukrainian captivity.

I personally find that the best of all possible scenarios would be the surrender of the Belarusian military to the Ukrainians with subsequent joining the ranks of the Kalinouski Regiment. And then they will be able to return to Belarus as part of the regiment to liberate the country from the dictatorship.

— We have already mentioned that the Belarusians who supported Ukraine were thrown into jails. Is that why they don't go public anymore?

— You must understand the high level of brutality of the regime that has been established in Belarus. Many Ukrainians have never lived in such conditions. That is why it is difficult for you to imagine the level of brutality of today's Belarusian dictatorship. In fact, a state of emergency has been declared in the country. People get arrested for everything. Even for speaking Belarusian. You can imagine the atmosphere there now. Any open protest under such conditions will inevitably lead to a sentence of 10 to 20 years in prison. They have already started issuing verdicts with such terms. It’s not just 15 days of administrative arrest.

In addition, it is quite possible to die in a Belarusian prison because of the terrible conditions. People are being tortured there. Political prisoners have already died during torture. I'm afraid there will be even more and more deaths.

Belarus also adopted a law allowing the use of military weapons against peaceful demonstrators. Thus, shooting peaceful demonstrators dead was actually legalized. And therefore, before judging us, it is necessary to find out what is happening in my homeland, and comprehend it.

“Tsikhanouskaya is a random figure who was carried to the top ...”

— What are the current moods in the Belarusian opposition? Are all opponents of the regime united in their support for Tsikhanouskaya as an alternative to Lukashenka?

— Listen, Tsikhanouskaya is not, and cannot be president of Belarus. She should be taken more as a random figure who found herself in favorable circumstances during the protests in 2020. Then a huge number of worthy candidates could not take part in the presidential “elections”. Among them were the then leaders of the opposition. Just because many of them had to emigrate, while others were behind bars on the eve of the elections.

Someone could not participate in the electoral race because of the status of a former political prisoner. First of all, because of Lukashenka's unwillingness to rehabilitate his political opponents. At the time of the 2020 elections, there were no legal grounds for the real opposition to participate in the presidential “elections”. We were all subjected to repression. It was precisely because of the illegal ban on participation in the election campaign that those elections could be recognized as undemocratic.

This also includes the ban on the activities of independent media. For example, our website Charter-97 was then blocked on the eve of the elections.

This is how Tsikhanouskaya turned out to be a completely random figure who was carried to the top on a wave of protests. In the end, the voters did not vote for Tsikhanouskaya, not for some of her programs. Moreover, she did not have any program. She had only one point: if she won the race, she would immediately hold new free, democratic elections in which all deserving candidates could take part. And that's all.

Therefore, people cast their votes primarily against Lukashenka. At the same time, they hope that new presidential elections will be held soon. Representing Tsikhanouskaya as the head of state is simply ridiculous. She has never, not a day been in the ranks of the opposition. Moreover, she never worked a day in her life, being content with the role of a housewife. Until the year before last, she was not interested in the situation in the country.

I don’t think that in the two years after the protests something has drastically changed for her, that she has somehow made any noticeable progress in understanding the political situation. That is why no one seriously considers this figure as a political leader.

Inside Belarus, her influence is now minimal. For two and a half years, Tsikhanouskaya’s headquarters missed a lot of opportunities to change the situation in the country, so today she does not affect anything.

— Okay. Who, then, can become the leader Belarus really needs?

— Many people can take the place of the president in Belarus. I can recall the Nobel laureate, our well-known human rights activist Ales Bialiatski. This is a very principled person who was in prison for his activities. And now he continues to serve his sentence. He was arrested last year. I absolutely trust this man. I know that he cares about the fate of the country. He devoted his whole life to trying to change the situation.

There is also Mikalai Statkevich, the leader of the social-democratic party Narodnaya Hramada. He is that one real leader of the opposition. During the years of Lukashenka’s rule, Mikalai spent a total of more than 10 years in prison. He is still behind bars.

We can also recall Pavel Seviarynets, the leader of the Belarusian Christian Democracy Party (on May 25 last year, he was sentenced to seven years in prison for participating in protests — edit.). Pavel has been in opposition to the regime almost from the first day, since Lukashenka became president in 1994.

In general, there are a lot of worthy candidates. And as soon as we democratize Belarus after the overthrow of the current regime, we will have free elections, in which it will be very difficult for us to choose the best of all worthy.

— Further, just talking about the methods of overthrowing the regime. Tsikhanouskaya’s associate Alina Koushyk says they have high hopes of removing Lukashenka peacefully. What is your opinion on this: is it real?

— I'm not at all interested in what people from Tsikhanouskaya’s headquarters say. Most of them are incompetent. Among them there are those who have worked for decades for the Lukashenka regime and come from law enforcement, punitive structures created by the dictator.

When they talk about a “peaceful path” or “dialogue with the regime”, it's just ridiculous. Because it is absolutely clear that there are no peaceful ways to change the situation in Belarus anymore.

— Ukrainian political scientist Yevhen Magda says that Ukrainians and Belarusians cannot understand each other. Like, this is the main problem of our two peoples. How do you think we can find much-needed understanding?

— I have always considered Belarusians and Ukrainians to be very close peoples. And I know that Belarusians have very warm feelings towards the Ukrainians. Despite the war, it seems to me that Ukrainians today understand that it is not the Belarusian people who are fighting against them.

We are historically close, native peoples and we, in fact, have a common future. Together we will fight for our freedom and independence. And in the end we will join the European Union and NATO together.

Belarusians still have a lot to learn about you, Ukrainians, in order to build a healthy interstate dialogue. As a representative of Belarusian independent journalists, together with my colleagues I try to convey information about what is happening in Ukraine. Given the blocking of many independent sources, a lot of Belarusians still do not know what exactly is going on in your country. Including what concerns the atrocities of the Russian army. And in general, what the Ukrainian people have been going through for 10 months now. There should be more information. But Ukrainians, for their part, should also learn more about what it is like to live in the time of Lukashenka's dictatorship.

However, I am sure that the two war criminals and maniacs Putin and Lukashenka will not be able to separate our two peoples. We will forever remain close and dear.