Oleksandr Kovalenko: Armed Forces Of Ukraine Encircle Kreminna From North & South

The Russian invaders are leaving their positions.

Ukrainian soldiers have stepped up military operations in the Kreminna area in the Luhansk region. Serhiy Haidai, head of the Luhansk regional military-civilian administration, spoke about this on the air of a national telethon. What is the situation of Russian troops in the area of this city? Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military observer of the Information Resistance group, gave his assessment to the website Charter97.org.

“The Russian invaders in the Kreminna area are suffering quite serious losses, which are due to the use of the “partially mobilized”, who are absolutely not prepared for hostilities. They simply do not know how to behave during artillery shelling, or rocket fire.

It is for this reason that we can say that the following situation has formed around Kreminna: it is from the south and north that the formation of an operational encirclement is visible, but so far at the level of a “gray zone”.

The Russian occupation units left a number of positions: the 35th separate guards motorized rifle brigade cannot hold certain positions, but maintains its presence in the north of Kreminna. However, it lost more than 50% of combat capability due to losses.

The system for compensating for losses in the Russian army today is as follows: when a unit loses about 30% of its composition, it conditionally loses its combat capability.

It must be withdrawn to the rear and restored there, however, Russia today has a catastrophic shortage in equipment and it can only compensate for the resource of personnel. And only with mobilized freshmen, who are absolutely unprepared.

The unit today is also not withdrawn to the rear, it remains in the combat zone. It is there that the “partially mobilized” are brought in, with which the personnel are compensated. When the ranks are replenished, the command gives the order to attack, and all this living mass goes forward, without full-fledged regular technical support. It is for this reason that there are such huge losses in the Russian army.”

“Will the Armed Forces of Ukraine be able to take Kreminna in the near future?”

“In the short term, I do not think that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will prioritize the liberation of Kreminna. The task of the AFU in this location is to create conditions for a counteroffensive. Conditions have not been finalized. The fact that the Russian occupiers are suffering losses and the “gray zone” is expanding around the city, which creates the prerequisites for an operational encirclement, and subsequently a complete encirclement, this is the creation of the prerequisites for a counteroffensive. This can take a long time: from two weeks to a month.

If some counter-offensive actions do not begin in the Svatove area, they will not begin earlier in the Kreminna region. Kreminna will be “played}, focusing on Svatove.

Indeed, the advancement of the Ukrainian army up to Starobilsk depends on the success in the Svatove line, and if we are talking about Kreminna, then we are talking about the liberation of Rubizhne, Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, where the liberated village of Bilohorivka will also play an important role. Therefore, everything depends on how events develop in the Svatove area.”

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