Rosemary Thomas: There Is Some Unhappiness Within The Belarusian Army

Such a risky venture would threaten the Lukashenka regime.

Rosemary Thomas left the post of British Ambassador to Belarus in 2012 but continues to closely monitor the situation in our country. The British diplomat gave an interview to the Charter97.org website and told why the West did not react enough to Lukashenka's crimes, whether the Belarusian troops would turn their weapons against the dictator, and how the awarding of Ales Bialiatski with the Nobel Prize inspires people around the world.

— What is the likelihood of Lukashenka giving the order to invade Ukraine with the Belarusian ground troops?

— I think there is far too much to lose should Belarus attempt to invade Ukraine. So, I think it remains a lot more unlikely than likely.

There's a whole raft of practical reasons that makes such an attempt risky. The terrain is difficult — it is now extremely well defended. It is not clear that the Belarusian Armed Forced have the requisite number of skilled fighting troops to deploy for combat. Finally, there are also, perhaps, some equipment issues.

Then, there's the political side. To undertake such a risky venture would threaten this illegitimate regime. Although it looks strong from the outside, inherently, it's not stable — and that's obvious. So, should he engage in a ground war in Ukraine when the vast majority of Belarusians are obviously very much against the war, he would be taking a huge risk: you couldn't exclude some sort of demonstrations, if reports are to be believed there is already quite a lot of unhappiness in Belarusian armed forces.

Finally what would he do if Ukraine was to strike back? We're already dealing with a rather unstable situation. Ukraine has shown extraordinary levels of patience up to now putting up with missiles being lobbed over in their direction from Belarus. Should Ukraine run out of patience and decide to strike back, and since the population is already against the war in Ukraine, that would be extremely poorly received and, I think, Lukashenka would have a real problem.

So, for all of these reasons, I just think the stakes are far too high. And I assume that he and Putin would have had some sort of discussion about the problems that could arise through forcing Belarusian troops into Ukraine.

— Is there among those reasons a realistic scenario when Belarusian troops turning the weapons against the regime?

— I couldn't put a percentage chance on that happening, but I don't think you could completely rule it out. Again, there have been some indications, including from the Ukrainians themselves, that there is some unhappiness within the Belarusian army at the way events have been unfolding.

— The ninth package of EU sanctions for aggression in Ukraine does affect Russia but it does not affect Belarus. Would you consider that EU should be more rigorous towards the co-aggressor?

— I would like the EU and the UK as well to be more rigorous in applying further sanctions to Belarus. The kind of support Lukashenka is giving to Putin's campaign of aggression, that is quite a high level of support, and I would like to see it matched by harsh sanctions.

That said, I think these are probably the harshest level of sanctions ever levied against Belarus. In some way, before, there have been problems with half-measures — it has been a bit halfhearted.

The crimes are very grave, these are crimes not just inside Belarus — they are crimes against Belarus's neighbors — it is the support that Lukashenka is giving to a naked war of aggression against Ukraine. But if the EU, if the UK can't find ways to make the sanctions harsher, they can at least try and close existing loopholes. They could be considering secondary sanctions. I know it is very difficult, but I would like to see that.

At the same time, people in Belarus are having to live with the economic deterioration that is being experienced under the sanctions packages. So, I can see there is a balance to be struck there, but I think there, probably, is more room for at least tightening up loopholes and, in particular, to stop Lukashenka helping Russia evade some of the effects of the sanctions being levied against Russia itself.

— So, in sum, although the sanctions are not ideal, but they're the best, which we have to date?

— I think so, yes. I myself at the beginning of this whole appalling episode was pessimistic about the sanctions that could be brought against Belarus.

I was impressed that the EU was able to show a fairly high degree of solidarity in bringing these packages against Belarus: we had action with the US, we had action with the UK. On the whole, it has come out better than I feared.

— Looking backwards, before the full-scale war in Ukraine, I was wondering why the EU and the West more generally seemed to show weakness in response to the atrocities by the Lukashenka regime, even after 2020?

— I think sanctions packages are difficult. It is very difficult to maintain solidarity. I guess, although it is brutal, the conclusion that you draw from, that is that Belarus just wasn't a sufficiently high priority. That is not a satisfactory situation, but that would be my guess as to why it wasn't possible to find more restrictive sanctions. But sanctions are never ever going to be a silver bullet on their own — they are part of the menu.

And also if you don't pass sanctions, you're saying, "Well, that's fine. This behavior that you are carrying out is okay." — there has to be some sort of demonstration by other countries that this behavior is not okay and, therefore, there need to be sanctions. We have been here, haven't we, with half-hearted sanctions, but the absence of any sanctions at all would send an even worse message, I believe.

— Human Right Defender Ales Bialatski was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. You know Ales personally. What are your feelings in this regard?

— It is kind of bittersweet. It was wonderful to listen to his speech being delivered on his behalf by his wife Natallia Pinchuk. The content, I think, reflected Ales as a person so well. It was wonderful to hear Belarusian being spoken for the first time in such a ceremony. But it is so bitter as well.

I know Ales is not new to the inside of a prison cell, but it is just a reminder that well over 1,400 of probably the most talented, skilled people in Belarus are currently sitting behind bars. These are people that are necessary to Belarus to realize its full potential. It's just an awfully sad situation.

I think Ales does represent all of the things that are best about Belarus: he is courageous, he is principled, he is very steadfast. And also, he is so human. The way he has managed to stop himself just getting angry and frustrated, but just trying to keep the hope alive — I found all of that incredibly moving. We miss him so much. We look forward to him coming out.

There was so much in his speech you could discuss, but I think his central message "do not be afraid". I think he was citing Pope John Paul II from his visit to Poland in the communist era in the eighties. It is a simple message, but extraordinary powerful. It reminds me of one of my own heroines here in the UK, Millicent Fawcett. She was a suffragette and a social campaigner in the 20th century, and she has a wonderful statue in Parliament Square: she's holding a banner and it says, "Courage calls to courage everywhere”.

And this was the feeling that Ales' speech gave me when I listened to it: very bitter, but very sweet to hear him giving this important message to the World, to raising the profile of the Belarusian human rights defenders. I'm sure, many, many people would have been inspired.

— What would be your message to the people who are against the regime, and who were affected by the repressions?

— One conveying very much the message that Ales was conveying: do not despair. When it's very dark, one must continue to hope for a change of this awful situation.

I want to believe as Ales does, that this situation will not simply go on and on. Belarus is in such a difficult place now. I think Ales was right in saying that what Putin wants to impose on Ukraine is a dependent dictatorship which is the corner that Lukashenka has now driven Belarus into. To cling onto his office he has imposed a quasi-occupation of Belarus allowing a quasi-annexation of Belarus by Putin.

The situation is unstable. So, everybody needs prepare. They need to keep as much solidarity as possible, because for Belarus to retrieve its full sovereignty and its independence so many of the cards will have to fall right.

Belarusians must do everything possible to ensure that should the right conditions come about, they can act. That means solidarity and preparation in all the various strata of society to be able to think through scenarios about how to take advantage of more favorable conditions, should they come about.

One mustn't give up, one must continue to struggle for something better. And I very much hope that that is what will happen with Belarus.

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