Konstantin Eggert: Putin Was Warned In The Most Uncompromising Manner

The Kremlin did not expect Ukraine to be a hard nut.

When will the Russians stop going to the slaughter for the Russian World? Why didn't Christianity stop Russia from atrocities in Ukraine? Will Putin press the nuclear button? The Charter97.org website talked about this with the well-known Russian journalist and political observer Konstantin Eggert.

– Will the war last for a long time?

– I think yes, this war can continue for quite a long time.

If we are talking about Putin’s strategy, then it looks like this: the destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure to the most possible extent, making a dump of broken bricks and glass from the central and part of eastern Ukraine and creation of conditions under which this war will undermine the spirit of the Ukrainian people and the Ukrainian army. Also, Putin hopes that the electorate of a number of European countries will simply get tired of helping Ukraine financially sooner or later.

Barbaric shelling has a specific purpose: no matter how much help they receive, it will not be enough, because today you have installed twenty generators, and tomorrow you need thirty, today you have repaired two bridges, and tomorrow you need to repair three.

I think that those Western experts who say that Putin today does not have the ability to conduct any major ground operations are right. I think that Putin and his generals are aware of this. That is why the emphasis is actually on the war against civilians and the destruction of the Ukrainian state. Putin still has enough resources for this.

— Does Putin have significant credibility in Russian society? Will the Russians continue to go to the slaughter for the Russian World?

– I wouldn't say that we can talk about any kind of credibility. Putin does not live in a democracy, he does not report to anyone. The problem is that until today this situation suits a significant part of the population, which has a very simple position: even if we understand that everything is going wrong, we will pretend that we support the state, that we accept its propaganda on faith because then no one will touch us.

Russian society long ago, even before the war, went into a comfort zone where propaganda sounds like a kind of background and you pay some tribute, but this is not the main thing for you. Most importantly that you are not actively involved in anything. Society is extremely fragmented and indifferent to what is happening even among friends and relatives, so one cannot expect mass solidarity with conscripts. Civil liability in Russia is for the few. Therefore, people are not just going to be killed, they are also going to kill Ukrainians who have done nothing wrong to them.

There is a habit of being obedient to the state: if the state has said that it needs me to be drafted, then I will do it. So far, Putin has managed to mobilize them without problems, in general. If it becomes massive and he starts to draft millions, then the situation can probably change. However, I am sure, the protests will be like those that we have already seen when relatives of conscripts protest not so much because people go to an unjust war and will engage in murder and robbery there, but because they were not given warm hats or poorly trained, or thrown out in an open field with leaky tents. I think that there are no expectations for political and pacifist protests in the near future.

– Russian filmmaker Nikita Mikhalkov, talking about why the Bolsheviks committed such inhuman crimes, once came to the conclusion that godlessness is the reason. Why are such terrible atrocities happening in Russia today?

– Russia remains, to a certain extent, a country without moral guidelines and, in fact, a very shallow Christian faith.

The phenomenon of the Russian Orthodox revival, which Patriarch Kirill likes to talk about so much, is what experts call “ritualism”: people put on crosses and kiss icons, but they know nothing about Jesus's teaching. Christianity is more a dialogue than a living faith for them. Ukraine, according to opinion polls, is a much more religious and Christian society.

The modern image of a Russian Orthodox person is one who worships relics and kisses icons, goes to take water from holy springs, but at the same time, perhaps, has not read the Gospel. This is an almost pagan phenomenon.

A number of foreign leaders of the church presented the heresy of phyletism as a claim to Patriarch Kirill. This is when faith is identified with a certain people and when faith is made an integral and very important element of national identity.

It's oddly enough but I would say that I agree with Nikita Mikhalkov: in fact, this godlessness (in its deepest sense) remains the same as it was. It has not gone. After all, from the fact that one does not become a Christian only by putting a cross on and consecrating eggs for Easter once a year.

– Does Putin believe in something?

– I can’t say what Putin believes in, but his behaviour and what he does personally makes me think that he has no real idea of what Christianity is.

One gets the impression that Putin is a statesman devoid of any mercy. This is a person who is indifferent to human life. Let him not feel empathy for the Ukrainians, whom he considers enemies, but he does not even feel sorry for his soldiers (he is the supreme commander). I do not know what Putin means, but his behaviour cannot be associated, in my opinion, with a monotheistic religion. He does not even correspond to the image of an ideal medieval Christian sovereign, despite the fact that the Middle Ages was, to put it mildly, a rather harsh time.

– Is Putin capable of pushing the nuclear button?

– By no means should we discount the possibility that if there are missiles with nuclear warheads, then someone can launch them. If Putin wants to commit suicide with Russia, then he can probably do it, but this is a question more for psychologists than for analysts.

As far as I understand, Putin has received warnings from the Western allies more than once that any action with nuclear weapons (even a sudden test on Novaya Zemlya) will erase a lot of red lines that the West has drawn for itself today and has not yet erased. I am sure that Putin got it in the clearest and most uncompromising manner possible. I have no doubt that this was done either by CIA Director Burns, or by one of the heads of state who spoke with him: Macron or Finnish President Niinistö. I am sure that Putin understands the consequences of any real nuclear blackmail.

Putin deliberately never went into conflict with those who are stronger than him. His attack on Ukraine was a mistake for sure: he considered Ukraine a colossus with feet of clay, but it turned out to be a hard nut. Probably, if Putin had known what the consequences would be, he would not have launched a large-scale invasion on February 24th. Obviously, NATO is the most powerful opponent that Russia can face. I have never read anywhere even a hypothetical scenario in which Russia could win the war with NATO, even if this war is non-nuclear. I'm sure Putin understands this.

As far as I understand, making a decision on a nuclear launch is not just the desire of one person. It is a whole protocol consisting of several steps. Imagine that the conditional Patrushev, Shoigu, Naryshkin, Gerasimov must decide to commit suicide. If they survive, they will be in a bunker in the middle of the country turned into nuclear ashes. I am sure that this will be the moment of truth for many. I think this can shake the regime and Putin understands this.

Despite all this rhetoric, I do not believe (at least not yet) that he will use nuclear weapons in even a symbolic way (relatively speaking, hit an empty square of water in the Black Sea or conduct tests in the Arctic Ocean).

I am sure that Putin will not deliver nuclear strikes on facilities in Ukraine, because this will hit Russia hard. This kind of strike close to NATO countries may be the trigger that will first trigger the fourth article (on consultations), and then the fifth article of the North Atlantic Collective Security Treaty.

– Is there any hope for the generals if Putin is still cornered? Are generals capable of disobeying Putin's orders?

No one knows how a person will behave in such a situation. We know Putin's generals as obedient until today, not very independent and not very intelligent people. However, I think that such a life choice can transform anyone. Nevertheless, I would not rule out counteraction against such a kind of Putin's decision.

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