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Roman Bessmertny: Lukashenka Started Combat Readiness Check Out Of Fear

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Roman Bessmertny: Lukashenka Started Combat Readiness Check Out Of Fear
Roman Bessmertny

The dictator has no chance to evade responsibility.

Lukashenka began a sudden check of the combat readiness of the Belarusian army. Bridge crossings are being built across the Nioman and Biarezina rivers.

Roman Bessmertny, a Ukrainian politician and diplomat, former Ukrainian ambassador to Belarus, comments on the situation around the activity of the Belarusian army for Charter97.org:

— Why does Lukashenka need this check? Is this preparation for an invasion or an attempt to avoid it?

— Neither the former nor the latter. From my point of view, for about a month, attempts will be made to stabilize information flows, the essence of which has now come down to the fact that Lukashenka has decided to launch an attack against Ukraine. In order to stabilize the situation a little for himself now, he is trying to take certain maneuvers.

Among them, I think, is another revision of the combat state of the army. After all, as soon as the probability that Lukashenka and the Belarusian army is about to enter the war rises, the protest immediately will grow very strongly in society. To do this, he needs certain actions. The essence of these actions will be reduced to mobilization, military exercises, and regular revisions in the army. Because Lukashenka is as afraid of society as he is of the situation in the army. Indeed, for the most part, society and the army do not accept the idea of participating in the war in Ukraine.

Nevertheless, in the current conditions, Moscow does not give the command to launch an offensive, and Lukashenka himself does not have the opportunity to make such a decision.

The impression that “Belarus is about to enter the war” comes from the fact that Shoigu was recently on a visit, an additional part of the weapons and “mobilized newbies” arrived in Belarus. But about 2/3 of the weapons are used for the preparation and training of the “partially mobilized”. Shoigu spent most of his time inspecting the level of training of these units on the territory of Belarus.

From this I conclude that, of course, sooner or later the decision in the Kremlin regarding the start of the offensive from Belarus will be made, but, firstly, I emphasize that it will not be made by Lukashenka.

Secondly, it will not be taken in the current environment. A certain condition for such a decision will be the intensification of serious offensive operations in the south of Ukraine and in the Donbas area, as well as an increase in the number of missile attacks. It is under these conditions that a decision will be made on the introduction of troops that are on the territory of Belarus, but not in this situation. Now the situation in the Donbas has turned into something dragged out, and a sort of a tactical confrontation. Moscow is now experiencing a shortage of missiles, especially cruise missiles. I'm not even mentioning drones.

The level of training and support of the troops that are on the territory of Belarus, not to mention the combat readiness of the conscripts serving in the Belarusian army, is not sufficient to throw them from the north because they will very quickly turn into meat, ground by the Ukrainian army.

It is clear that Lukashenka has already made a decision for himself. The dictator thereby saves himself, but he is not now in control of his own destiny. I generally do not recommend focusing on Lukashenka about whether the Belarusian army will enter the war or not. This is not the decision of the Belarusian dictator. Yes, there will be some nervousness, meetings with the military will be held, as was the case around October 10, when the entry would have been about to take place if the attacks of Russian missiles and drones on Ukraine's communications gained success.

— You wrote a lot about the fact that there are two key bridgeheads for Russia — the Crimea and Belarus. Kyiv is now talking quite a lot about the Crimea. How to remove the threat from the Belarusian foothold?

— The same option works here. There is no difference between the statuses of the Crimea and Belarus. The Crimea is the occupied territory of Ukraine, which is used as a springboard for attacks on continental Ukraine, and Belarus is the territory occupied by the Russian Federation, which in fact is also used for attacks on Ukraine.

In political circles, the issue is being discussed that Ukraine cannot shoot at the territory of Russia. At the same time, the issue of Belarus does not exist at all. Therefore, the legal status is as follows: Ukraine is at war with Russia. Russia occupied part of Ukraine and all of Belarus. From the point of view of international law, everything is clear here. I'm not talking about national law.

In legal language, Belarus, as a state captured by the dictator Lukashenka, is at war with Ukraine. It can be called a satellite as an individual.

Ukraine has the power to choose any method of action against the enemy, which is located on a particular territory.

— Lukashenka, apparently, hopes that he will be able to evade responsibility this time too, waiting for the defeat of Moscow and then “crawling away” from it. How to prevent the dictator from getting away with everything this time?

— Lukashenka has no chance to evade responsibility. Unlike the war criminal Putin, who commits crimes against humanity, Lukashenka is also a criminal against the nation. He commits crimes not only crimes humanity, but also against the Belarusian people.

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