Oleksandr Kovalenko: Russian Military Bases In Belarus May Be Attacked

The Russian army has already received a slap in the face in Sevastopol.

In an interview with Charter97.org, Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military and political correspondent of the Information Resistance group, explains that the Russian army was slapped in the face in Sevastopol, whether a preventive strike can be launched against the Russian troops in Belarus, and what changes can be expected on the front line in winter:

- Very often the emphasis is placed on the fact that fighting may be suspended during the winter period and the like. But in reality winter is just an opportunity for the army of the country that is best prepared for it, an opportunity to seize the initiative in a number of directions against the country that is least prepared. At the moment the AFU is preparing for the winter period and the preparations are quite serious, which cannot be said about the Russian army. Therefore, in my opinion, in certain sections where winter conditions are particularly harsh (in Ukraine it is the Donbass bridgehead, Luhansk region), combat operations may in principle be suspended there, but they will not be put on pause for good. In the south, on the contrary, the situation may be as active as it has been over the past few months.

- Ukraine has conducted a daring attack in Sevastopol. What is unique about the AFU attack on Russian ships?

- First of all, it is not known whether Ukraine conducted it. Neither the General Staff of the AFU, nor any other power structures, nor any officials have allegedly stated that Ukraine had anything to do with the incident. Similarly, the Russian Federation blamed Ukraine without providing a single piece of evidence that we had anything to do with it. So I have no idea who it was. But the party that carried out this operation, it carried it out professionally and quite brazenly.

First of all, the Sevastopol Bay is no less protected facility than the Crimean bridge. The security system there is quite serious, including that of the FSB units. Among other things, it is also a military facility, which is located in the zone of action of a number of defense systems, including air defense systems. It is a closed zone, the break-in to which is a real slap in the face to the whole Russian security system.

The operation was carried out by unmanned boats, which were loaded with a certain amount of explosives, the exact weight of which is rather problematic to judge. But the result exceeded expectations, as at least two ships were damaged.

One of them was the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Flotilla, the Project 11356R frigate Admiral Makarov. It is in fact the second flagship to be lost by the Russian fleet in six months. The first was the missile cruiser Moskva, a ship of the first rank, whose loss deprived the Russian Black Sea Fleet of the title of fleet. Now it can only be called a flotilla, because it cannot be called a fleet if it does not have a ship of the first rank.

The loss of the patrol ship Admiral Makarov virtually six months later is a record: two lost flagships in such a short time. No country in the modern history of war and conflict has ever set such a record. If one sums up that it was impossible for the Russians to repel such an attack, its effectiveness and efficiency, it can be said that it was indeed carried out audaciously and quite professionally.

- The Russian military command often uses the method of "overthrowing the enemy with the meat". Will this mobilization help them this time?

- It helps them in part because it allows them to fill the shortage of human resources on the line of contact quite quickly. That is, the units that require redeployment from the combat zone to restore combat readiness because of losses are not moved out. The Russians immediately send groups of partially mobilized men to the war zone to compensate for losses of personnel.

But the problem is that such tactics do not compensate for losses in hardware, and this already undermines the combat effectiveness of the unit. An important point is also that the resource with which they are filling personnel shortages is untrained. It is a purely imaginary feeling that they are somehow making up for losses.

Recent reports from the AFU General Staff show a sharp increase in the number of enemy soldiers killed. This is one of the factors confirming that there are now more and more untrained and unprofessional resources in the combat zone, i.e. partially mobilised, who are not actually prepared for combat operations, which results in more casualties.

- Iranian drones are now often launched from Belarus, the Kinzhals have recently appeared. Do you see a possibility for the AFU to make a preventive strike on the Russian troops in Belarus?

- I do not exclude such a scenario, although the country's leadership continues to adhere to such a rather patient position with respect to such actions of the Russians from the territory of Belarus. This is a way of showing a certain respect for the borders of the very state of Belarus. On the other hand, I do not exclude that in a certain situation this patience may come to an end and a preventive strike may be launched against one of such facilities, where Russian troops are compactly stationed.

- Russian helicopters were recently blown up at an airfield near Pskov. Are similar sabotage operations possible on the territory of Belarus, in Ziabrauka, for example, which the Russians have turned into a bridgehead for attacks on Ukraine?

- What happened there is an emergency caused primarily by the technical and technological degradation of repair and maintenance of such kind of equipment. This equipment has been subjected to catastrophic wear and tear due to the hostilities, it was not in the best condition even before, and now there are problems with its rehabilitation. A complex of such factors is leading to such incidents.

Russia, in fact, is now in a state of technological collapse, and virtually in all sectors, from the civilian to the military. And this technological collapse will manifest itself more and more with each time.

- When do you think a turning point in the war can be expected? How long can it last?

- The turning point in the war took place back in February, when the Russian Federation failed to seize the territories it had planned and Kyiv. This can already be considered a turning point, as the "second army in the world" suddenly stopped and stalled. The Russian army proved to be incapable of implementing any large-scale plans that it wanted to implement as quickly as possible with the resources it had.

Now we are in a state of not a breakthrough or something like that, we are in a state of gradual step-by-step liberation of our territories, which can of course take quite a long period of time. And we were preparing for this from the first days because this is a war of attrition, first of all. And we already see that the enemy is exhausted.

Russia is forced to take drones and order ballistic missiles from Iran, they had to throw thousands of their completely unprepared civilians into the fight. Meanwhile hundreds of thousands of people have simply fled the country, thus collapsing the economy. Russia is also now trying to negotiate with North Korea for ammunition that is compatible with Russian weapons. The Kremlin is trying to negotiate with Tajikistan to bring out the ammunition and hardware that is there.

This all speaks to the dire situation Russia faces at the beginning of November. And it will only get worse from here on. Accordingly, they will not be able to hold back the Ukrainian armed forces' counteroffensive. There will be a step-by-step, fairly gradual liberation of territories in order to minimize losses on our side.

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