The Noose Around the Neck of Lucanomics Is Tightening

What will hurt it the most in the near future?

Due to the actions of the authorities, the Belarusian economy is facing more and more new threats. What could hurt it anytime soon?

Salidarnasts lists the most noticeable negative trends and threats.

Sanctions already in force against Belarus

Let us remind you that, due to the behavior of the authorities (repression and human rights violations), Western countries have introduced several economic sanctions.

The USA is against the Belneftekhim concern, its American representative office, and its enterprises: Belshina, Grodno Azot, Grodno Khimvolokno, Lakokraski, Naftan, Polotsk-Steklovolokno, the Belarusian Oil Trading House.

The European Union is against the enterprises “140 Repair Plant”, Agat, Main Economic Department of the Presidential Property Management Department, Dana Holdings, Sinezis, MZKT, Beltechexport.

In addition, after the incident with the Ryanair aircraft, the European Union banned Belavia from flying on its territory and European aircraft from flying over Belarus.

All of these enterprises will suffer losses from the sanctions; we can talk about at least hundreds of millions of dollars.

Plus even tougher sanctions

From the scandal with the forced landing of the Ryanair plane, the European Union has agreed on even tougher sanctions against Belarus, which will be introduced the other day. For the first time - sectoral.

Uncertainty over oil supplies to Naftan

The US sanctions were mentioned above, but it is worth dwelling separately on the situation with one of the two refineries in Belarus. After the imposition of US sanctions, information emerged that the largest Russian companies would stop supplying raw materials to Naftan.

Now the company is completing modernization work, and, so far, the big question is what will happen with further supplies of Russian oil. Without them, the Belarusian budget will lose a significant item of income.

Uncertainty with gas transit

Gazprom plans to sharply cut gas transit through Belarus starting in the fourth quarter of 2021. Perhaps, this is due to the plans to launch the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline.

If this really happens, then Belarus risks losing about 250-300 million dollars, which it received annually for the transit of Russian gas through its territory to Europe.

Russia stubbornly refuses to help

Recently, Russian Ambassador Yevgeny Lukyanov assured of support in the context of the sanctions: "We will not abandon Belarus." But in reality, this is not happening yet.

Aliaksandr Lukashenka has already several times flew to Vladimir Putin for hours-long negotiations this year, but he never got any help from him.

The $ 500 million loan, announced after their last meeting, is a promise made back in September last year.

Probably, the Kremlin adheres to a new tactic: to allocate aid to the Belarusian authorities only after real steps on their part, which may relate to the deepening of integration of the two countries.

The authorities are beginning to view the private sector as enemies

After massive protests in the country, the ruler spoke negatively about individual entrepreneurs, private enterprises, and the IT sector, who did not show political loyalty. The authorities are beginning to tighten the screws to the business: the same employees are faced with new restrictions.

Not only Western sanctions but also the internal political situation is already negatively affecting Belarusian business.

At the same time, the largest enterprises in the public sector remain unprofitable, the debts of the flagships are breaking records. Filling the budget is likely to become an increasing problem.