Expert: The MMM Scenario May Reoccur in Belarus

Only those who do it first will be able to withdraw their deposits from banks.

People in Belarus should be ready for another state-run fraud. A former official of the Ministry for Taxes and Duties, as well as consultant of the Security Council of Belarus Jauhen Bury stated it in an interview with Radio Svaboda.

Charter97.org presents the main theses of the interview:

- Belarusians continue the economic protest ATM-exchange office-bank. It's our way to prepare for another fraud and protect our savings at a time when banks win no trust.

- The size of "unserviced assets" reached a historical maximum - 3.7 billion rubles. It's the amount that borrowers can not pay back to banks, and banks to depositors. There is a risk of the MMM scenario to reoccur when only artful people can withdraw their deposits.

- Belarusian banks are taking more shares of unprofitable enterprises on their balance sheets. Given the overall situation in the economy, one can draw such a conclusion from the "Review of depository institutions" of the National Bank. The index "shares and other types of capital participation" almost doubled from January 1, 2020, to April 1, 2021 - from Br3.87 to Br7.75 billion.

- The bankruptcy of many banks would have been inevitable without state support and various machinations of the regime. Last year alone, the Belarusians withdrew more than $2 billion from the banks. It hit the banking system hard.

- One example of manipulation is the new draft decree. According to it, the Asset Management Agency will take over all debts of loss-making industrial enterprises to banks.

- In the near future, the country may face a shortage of foreign currency. The national debt is 90% in foreign currency. This year, the obligatory payments equal $3 billion. Reserve currency assets for the last 16 months have halved - from $5,6 to $2,8 billion. That is, nothing will leave to pay debts without new foreign borrowings.

- Given the shortage of foreign currency in the banking system, the authorities may issue a decree on loans of hard currency to the population in Belarusian rubles.

- The Belarusians should be ready for the state to deceive them once again. They should also understand that the least safe place to keep your savings is the Belarusian banks.