Lukashenka Walks on Thin Ice

The dictator is at serious risk due to attitudes towards COVID-19.

At a meeting on Monday, October 19, Lukashenka gave instructions on the "prevention" of coronavirus. From his words, it follows that it is necessary to abandon the control over observance of the mask regime (especially fines) and also to prevent forced vaccination.

The udf website asked the experts: how will Lukashenka's statements be perceived in society and how will they affect his popularity?

“Lukashenka’s new message will play against him”

Director of the Political Sphere Institute and Doctor of Political Sciences Andrei Kazakevich noted that Lukashenka's new message will play against him.

“Firstly, the issue of coronavirus is not the basis of Lukashenka’s politics. Secondly, there are many among his supporters who can be called “covid dissidents,” those who are suspicious of vaccinations, and so on. But Lukashenka's new message will play against him in a neutral environment and an environment of opponents, where the opinion that the mask regime and vaccination are important to preserve life and health is more widespread," Kazakevich said.

The media, which had studied the data obtained from hackers who hacked the Passport system, write that, from March 2020 (since the arrival of the pandemic) to March 2021, excess mortality in Belarus amounted to 32 thousand people. That is, 14 times more than the authorities reported.

Why doesn't Lukashenka recognize these numbers?

“It's a reluctance to admit mistakes. This, like agreeing to new, tougher measures, would be admitting that the policy in the fight against coronavirus was previously ineffective and wrong, that it was quite frivolous. Recognition of additional deaths would raise the question of how much responsibility lies with the country's leadership for the deaths of people,” Kazakevich said.

The political scientist added:

“The current situation with covid has consequences not only for the health of specific people but also for the economy. The increase in morbidity puts pressure on the health care system and leads to a reduction in the workforce. Perhaps this is almost the only factor that forces the authorities to think about the mask regime and other preventive measures. But, as we can see, even though there were certain positive steps in this direction, Lukashenka initiated a rollback by an authoritarian decision.”

"Shaky factor"

Pyotr Rudkovsky, a political scientist and academic director of BISS, noted that part of the population may approve of the abolition of the practice of fines for the lack of masks.

"But this is a very shaky factor. The situation with covid in Belarus is bad, and it is likely to be even worse. Therefore, public sentiment on this ground can be very volatile. Let's say today the majority will approve of the non-necessity of masks, and tomorrow the same majority will burst out in anger because of the terrible queues in polyclinics, the deaths of their loved ones, and the lack of any help from the state," Rudkovsky believes.

"If the "president" believes that anti-covid measures are nonsense, and officials still introduce such measures or adhere to them, then they question the power of the "president." This makes Lukashenka terribly angry, so much so that even now, when he needs to protect loyal ministers like the apple of his eye, he cannot restrain himself," Rudkovsky said.