Self-Detonation of Lukashenka

The "ticking" gets louder every day.

Now it becomes obvious that Luka plants the explosives on himself and sets the timer. Every day the "ticking" becomes louder and louder, and the obsessive idea that everything that used to happen will have to be abandoned takes escalation to a new level, writes the CYNIC telegram channel.

Escalation is the only option that the regime can currently implement at this stage.

There was an option of de-escalation when Luka tried to sell the release of political prisoners, but no buyer could be found in Europe.

It became clear that it was no longer possible to turn, it would not be possible to bring the situation to the "cold winter of 2020-2021," and, therefore, it was necessary to rush into a brick wall with the enthusiasm of a kamikaze from Serious Sam.

If Lukashenka decides to reduce the repression, then (1) the power bloc will gradually begin to disintegrate because it will see in the weakening of repression a sign of political weakness; (2) will strengthen civil society because political prisoners who have gone through concentration camps have become sources of the people's spiritual power: they will become new local leaders and centers of concentration of power, around which an active protest basis will again begin to form.

That is, you cannot retreat, but you cannot continue either. If repressions and international provocations are intensified, then (1) the system will exhaust itself: a huge amount of resources and a constant presence at the borderline state of a semi-war cannot strengthen the vertical that is under sanctions - funds are running out, and there are no sponsors left; (2) the system of arbitrariness and brutality will begin to border on anarchy - the complete absence of "limits" on the one hand risks turning into a complete breakdown of "limits" on the other, due to which the confrontation can break out to a completely new level, when even system players, feeling the exhaustion of regime and Lukashenka, will pick up a snuffbox, ashtray, or suitcase...

Lukashenka himself began the irreversible process when he landed the plane and caused the migration crisis. Now there is no way out.