The Real Scale of the COVID Catastrophe in Belarus: Up to 1,100 People May Die per Day

Belarus is in the top 10 countries in the world in terms of mortality.

Let's continue talking about COVID-19. Chronicle of the disaster. Even children's departments in various hospitals in the country are given over to adult covid departments, writes the Nick and Mike telegram channel.

“Minsk Regional Children's Clinical Hospital, first floor, ENT - everyone was discharged on Friday. The department was transferred to covid. Doctors of the same department will be treating.”

“The Children's Infectious Diseases Hospital opened two covid wards for adults this week. There are not enough doctors. Doctors and nurses have been transferred from the 2nd Children's Hospital of Minsk.”

“In Mahiliou, hospital No. 1 has been completely redesigned for covid. Since October 9, the intensive care unit and all surgical departments of the Mahiliou Oncological Dispensary have been completely (!) given over to covid. Only chemotherapy on the basis of the hospice, the hospice itself, and the department of radiation therapy are working.”

It seems that it isn't meant to get real figures on mortality from the junta. It decided to disgrace itself to the end. Therefore, let's pay attention to the resources that allow us to make an assessment of the real state of affairs based on the available data.

The University of Washington has created a website that collects real data and predictions about how the pandemic will develop in different countries and the world as a whole. A methodology has been developed that allows us to understand what the real numbers of excess mortality are from incomplete data and data from countries in which there are insufficient testing opportunities.

Belarus is in the top 10 countries in the world in terms of mortality. But first about why these techniques are not numbers out of the head. Current time with the help of Cyber partisans counted on the passport base that the excess mortality from March 2020 to March 2021 amounted to more than 32 thousand people. In the analysis on the site - 33 555 people. In total, excess mortality during the pandemic is estimated at 68,887 people. That is, according to these data, 1 out of 135 Belarusians died.

The forecast figures are even sadder. In the baseline scenario (the current level of vaccination and the use of mask mode) over the next three months, excess mortality will increase by 40 thousand. In a negative scenario (and everything goes to the fact that the health care system will no longer cope with the flow of cases) - the estimate reaches 60 thousand excess deaths.

To make it simple, this means that by the middle of December, when the peak of disease frequency will come, the excess mortality can fluctuate from 600 to 1100 people per day. Think about it: a thousand Belarusians a day.

What we see now is only the beginning of the tragedy. Please take care of yourself and your relatives. Get vaccinated (Poland / Lithuania / Georgia / Turkey at your service), wear masks. Work remotely whenever possible. Going on strike to save your life is also an option. There is nothing more important than your own life. And besides you, no one will take care of it.