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The Big Game With Billion-Dollar Bets

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The Big Game With Billion-Dollar Bets
PHOTO: AP

How Moscow oligarchs compete for Lukashenka's "family silver."

The Kremlin is not the only one who sees the Belarusian crisis as an opportunity to completely subdue the neighboring country. Russian oligarchs also, or perhaps even more covetously, look at the attractive assets that the bankrupt dictator owns, writes Vladislav Inozemtsev, a Russian economist, senior researcher at the Center for strategic and international studies in Washington and Director of the Center for post-industrial research in Moscow, in an article for the Gazety Wyborczej (translation – Charter97.org).

When Vladimir Putin announces that he has already formed a "reserve" of law enforcement officers in order to rush to "fraternal aid" to the falling Aliaksandr Lukashenka, behind the scenes of big politics, there is another game - big interests and big money - a guarantee of what the billionaires from Moscow have already invested in Belarus, and what there is still to profit from.

Russia is the largest creditor of Belarus. Minsk's debt to Moscow is $ 7.92 billion (48% of the country's total external debt). Russian companies buy from 45 to 80 percent of what Belarusian industrial giants such as Minsk automobile plant, Minsk tractor plant or BelAZ produce.

But even the scale of the debt or the dependence of the market on a huge neighbor does not reflect the real influence of Russia on the economy of Belarus and does not indicate the most influential people who are involved in the economic struggle for Belarus.

Because not only Russia and its controlled businesses but also private companies support the current leadership of Belarus and are very active behind the scenes.

Oil, coal, and cryptocurrencies

We should start with the oil and gas Empire of Mikhail Gutseriev's family (in 2015-19 it was the richest family in Russia, then it gave way to Arkady Rotenberg, his brother, and son). Gutseriev oil company was the only supplier of raw materials for Belarusian petrochemicals after Putin stopped supplying Russian oil in January 2020. Gutseriev is also believed to be a partner of Lukashenka's eldest son Viktor, in trading cryptocurrencies in Minsk and in money laundering.

Another partner of Lukashenka is German Gref, who is considered a liberal President of Sberbank, the largest bank in Russia. He has invested hundreds of millions of dollars in Belarusian real estate. His bank owns the Belarusian "BPS-Sberbank." During his repeated visits to Minsk, Gref expressed full support for Lukashenka. During his last stay in July, he announced new investments in Belarus and took part in the opening of an expensive fountain that he presented to the city of Minsk.

In addition, Sberbank is the largest creditor of Gutseriev, who owed him about $ 5 billion (the entire property of his family is now worth less than $ 3.2 billion). A significant part of this money was invested in Belarus.

Dmitry Mazepin is also active on the Belarusian front. When the protests began in the country, it was he who initiated the creation of the Committee for the salvation of Belarus, which was supposed to unite Russian and Belarusian entrepreneurs around the government. Mazepin is the owner of URALCHEM, a company that controls most of Russia's fertilizer production. His business is also a major debtor of the same "Sberbank," from which he has already taken 3.9 billion dollars (the annual turnover of" URALCHEM " is about 1.2 billion).

The main competitor of Mazepin's company is the Belarusian giant Belaruskali, which is worth 30 billion dollars. The Russian tycoon would like to buy it in exchange for the support given to Lukashenka.

Valuable loot to capture

Today's Russian oligarchic system grew out of the privatisation of industry built during the Soviet era in the 1990s. Since then, the post-Soviet potential has not been modernized. Today, 23 of the 30 largest companies in Russia are based on what was built during communism (in China, only 7 of the 100 largest companies are based on what was created before 1990).

Belarus has not been privatized in the Russian style, and most of the enterprises are still owned by the state. Russian business looks at the Belarusian economy as a valuable asset that will be easy to capture if falling Lukashenka is forced to buy time for a significant portion of state assets.

This is why Russian oligarchs, who are themselves financially bankrupt, are negotiating a power-for-assets contract with a political bankrupt, the Belarusian dictator.

I am convinced that banker Gref is the most important lobbyist for Lukashenka in the Kremlin, who sends signals from him directly into Putin's ear and, at the same time, seeks guarantees for the interests of his bank and its debtors in Belarus.

Relations between Russia and Belarus should not be viewed solely from the point of view of geopolitics. An important part of them is a big game with billions of bets. Russia is doing everything to get the "Belarusian family silver" belonging to its neighbor while accusing the West of interfering in the Affairs of a sovereign country.

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