Leu Marholin: Fall Of Belarusian Currency Is Inevitable

The economist's forecast.

Leu Marholin, economist, deputy chairman of the United Civil Party, on the air of "Present Time" explained whether there will be a collapse of the national currency in Belarus.

- I would like to discuss with you the words of Lukashenka. I quote: "We have agreed with the President of Russia on refinancing. We will keep this billion dollars." What do you think it means to keep a billion dollars by reaching an agreement with Russia?

- First of all, this means that Lukashenka has very vague idea about economics. The fact is that even if it is possible to agree on the refinancing of this billion, it simply means that Russia will put this billion from one pocket to another, and the debt of Belarus will last for some time. This billion, of course, is not in the Belarusian money-box, because if it was, there would be no need to start a conversation about refinancing. This suggests that the financial situation is indeed very difficult.

- Another quote from Lukashenka: "We will not allow the collapse of the national currency." Do you think they won't?

- You know, this phrase of Lukashenka has already become such a national meme, because every time after this phrase the national currency collapses. So it was in 2008, so it was in 2011, and the Belarusian currency fell by two, three times. I don't think this will happen now, because now the National Bank is still pursuing a more or less reasonable policy, but the fact that the fall of the Belarusian currency is inevitable is unambiguous. The gross domestic product is falling, budget revenues are falling, state employees have to be paid, and Lukashenka also spoke about this not so long ago. It is possible that the National Bank will turn on the printing press. Of course, this will not happen all at once, a large amount of money will not be thrown in right away, but this will definitely affect the situation on the foreign exchange market.

- On the BPS-Sberbank website there is news about the limitation of the volume of loan applications, and on the Technobank website - in large red print [it is written]: "Consideration of loan applications is suspended." What do you think it means and why is it happening?

- The citizens of Belarus have long learned to live well in the conditions when the Belarusian ruble suddenly sharply depreciates. Everyone who can take ruble loans, and after some time they depreciate, and this makes it possible to have a pretty solid financial gain. It started back in the 90s, it continued in the mid 2000s and into the 2010s. And this means that banks expect that there will be a wave of applications for loans in order to devalue them later, so banks have taken proactive measures in this regard.