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Leanid Zaika: It’s Better for Lukashenka to Resign by August 1

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Leanid Zaika: It’s Better for Lukashenka to Resign by August 1
Leanid Zaika
Photo: realt.by

This power has run dry.

The Belarusian authorities have decided to introduce an interim administration in Belgazprombank. A former head of the National Bank Nadezhda Yermakova was appointed its head. A potential candidate for the presidency of Belarus Viktar Babariko used to run a financial institution for 20 years. He described the regime's actions as a raider seizure. Russian shareholders of the bank also made a statement.

What consequences will such actions bear on the Belarusian authorities?

Charter97.org spoke to Leanid Zaika, a well-known economist and the head of the Strategy analytical centre.

- I carefully looked through the information on the website of Belgazprombank, then Gazprom sites. I studied the initial data and implementation schemes of the beneficiaries of this bank. Gazprom and Gazprombank own 49% each, while Belarus has almost nothing to do with this property. This is a foreign bank.

Regarding interference in internal affairs, it could be only force majeure circumstances related to the entire Belarusian banking system. But this is not the case, because the head of the National Bank, Pavel Kallaur, made no statement.

As for the so-called criminal trace, these elements can only be private, addressed to one or another person. There is no collective responsibility in banks for someone to commit illegal actions. Given the property protection and guarantee of owners' rights, all international and other legal rules are violated here.

As for the appointment of a woman at the age of 67 to the post of head of the bank's board (I do not specifically name her as a sign of respect for her respectable age), there are no grounds for this. As a result, all the activities are a rather dubious method of political struggle against one of the unregistered candidates, namely Viktar Babariko.

- Will Gazprom only issue a statement or will there be some more decisive steps?

- Gazprom already acts decisively. I pay Gazprom $126 per thousand cubic meters of gas. It will not raise gas tariffs. If it suspends the supply, I will be offensive. It makes no sense. There are other instruments, which mean a financial war is declared. Gazprom is a powerful organization; it can make dangerous manoeuvres for Belarus.

Current events mean political narrow-mindedness of the Belarusian leadership. First of all, there has been a theoretical mistake - one can't touch what one doesn't own. Second, even if there was a person who wanted to nominate as a presidential candidate and he's a criminal, he's not registered yet. It reduces to the fact that Lukashenka takes Babariko as a personal threat. Therefore, this hasty, ineffective reaction followed.

- Why did Lukashenka dare to such a great quarrel with Russia during the election campaign?

- There must be a conflict. I keep a close eye on all rhetorical pauses and accents in Lukashenka's speeches. I mean, there have already been some semantic mistakes. It regards not only Lukashenka; he has already talked to many unprofessional things. I also mention the Belarusian Foreign Minister, who welcomed the shipment of American oil, although it may be both Russian and Venezuelan oil. Guys, you take wrong positions. One should realize that if one is a military interpreter, I mean Makei, and then all semantic load should be placed very carefully.

The Belarusian leadership made tragic mistakes that will lead to even greater repercussions than the current Belarusian authorities are afraid of.

There is such a notion as "textological space". My colleagues, prominent scientists, philosophers and economists, are engaged in it. By the nature of the textological space of Belarus, we can say that it is the inadequacy of behaviour. Lukashenka is an inadequate person, as well as Makei.

Lukashenka has good intuition. He feels that he will come to August 9, as Japan once came to this date in 1945. Why did Hiroshima suffer a nuclear bombing? When the Japanese successfully attacked Pearl Harbor and all America cried and suffered, Japanese admirals and emperors decided to hold a victory parade in Hiroshima.

This is also a reminder to the Belarusian authorities. Guys, you should've thought twice why you scheduled a vote for the day of Hiroshima bombing. What games are you playing? Do you have any idea about world history? Do you see the associative series? That's why I'm talking about their short-mindedness.

An instinctive level of people woks well. They want to remove this leadership. Belarusians stand in lines and sign for anyone: a blogger, Lukashenka's assistant, a bank director. Lukashenka has been destroying the political space all the time, putting pressure and destroying his possible opponents; he has not created a more or less competent structure of the political balance and now he gets what he deserves. He is afraid of the image in the crooked mirror that he created.

- How would you assess the situation in the Belarusian economy? Would the government manage without foreign loans?

- The Belarusian economy can still function without any external loans. By the way, it can function both without the current Prime Minister and without Lukashenka. It will even do it better without them.

I was at an international conference. My colleagues ecologists, chemists, biologists made a wonderful conclusion - any human interference, any activity is dangerous to the world and life. It also applies to the Belarusian economy. It is so ridiculous for them to believe that they control something sitting in their offices, solve some tasks to lead the country. They only damage it.

There’s no point in building some new businesses, giant factories like Musk does. It is already the artifact of the past to sell cigarettes or milk for export. That is why Lukashenka and the government should resign by August 1. I think they could march along the avenue, many people would applaud. I don`t see any future for them; the guys have already played their part.

- The presidential candidate Viktar Babariko stated that actions of the authorities only confirmed those rating people laugh at on the Internet and in the streets. Do you think 3% is the real rating of Lukashenka today?

- I think that the government has run dry. How many people trust it? Both Lukashenka and all his entourage can see that the jig is almost over. One can carry out any sociological research, monitor the rate of economic growth, look at the rate of income growth. This, in my opinion, has already lost sense.

Lukashenka's reaction to this coronavirus threat is enough to realize that he had a veterinary approach. His approach is as follows: 60% of cows will get sick and everything will be fine; the herd will survive. He was wrong as well as the Swedes.

In political polemics, it works figuratively. Given the economic and social approach, even 1% is much for the current Belarusian authorities.

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