Belated Alternative

Oil supplies are a huge mistake and Lukashenka’s fault before the history and the country.

Aliaksandr Lukashenka held a regular meeting on the main Belarusian issue today - oil. New nuances sounded.

Before the meeting, the deputy prime minister in charge of the petrochemical complex was changed. Lukashenka was dissatisfied with the work of the former official who held this position, Ihar Lyashenka, during the crisis period. New Deputy Prime Minister Yury Nazarau is a forester by education and professional activities. One must think that now the oil and gas industry will finally work as it should.

During the meeting, Lukashenka made a remark that the government needs to reduce the dependence of the Belarusian economy on oil, and diversify the sources of the economic growth. It would seem that this is the right moment to change the structure of the economy, to bet on new, more modern industries. However, this was just a brief remark. The main emphasis was on returning the previous weight to oil refining at any price.

Lukashenka would not have been himself if he had not expressed his irritation about the actions of foreign partners:

“Some states have realized that with the help of a valve on an oil pipe, issues that are advantageous to them are resolved much more easily. Do not think that I am only hinting at Russia ... Unfortunately, despite any mutual obligations, this practice has also been applied to Belarus,” the dictator said. “The conditions for the supply of oil in an ultimative form are linked with other problems that the supplier country wants to solve. This is done without taking into account the existing contractual framework, and the principles of building our relations. ”

It seems that here Lukashenka had in mind (“do not think that I am only hinting at Russia”) Kazakhstan, also an ally of Belarus in the EAEU and the CSTO. On March 2, the country's deputy minister of trade, Kairat Tarebaev, said that Kazakhstan was ready to supply Belarus with oil only with a duty. And this outraged the Belarusian ruler.

Lukashenka’s speech included elements of what could be called a more or less distant strategy. But this was not a strategy of structural reforms, which Belarusian and foreign economists have been talking about for many years, but the strategy to maintain the status quo at all costs. Its meaning is to avoid dependence on one supplier, and to focus on diversification, on the search for “long-term alternative sources of raw materials.”

“It’s our own fault that we did not diversify oil supplies at one time. Monopolism always leads to similar results,” said Lukashenka. He very rarely admits his mistakes. And now he recognized, although he hid behind the word “we”. The bet on one partner, on Russia, and not only in the matters of oil supplies, is really a huge mistake and Lukashenka’s guilt before the history, and the country. By the way, the BPF back in the 1990s proposed to build the oil trunk pipeline from the Baltic through Ukraine to the Black Sea, so as not to be completely dependent on Russia.

And now Lukashenka sets the task: “We will continue to buy about 40%, maybe 50% of oil in Russia (if Russia wants to), when we finally diversify. And we can buy from the ports of the Baltics and from Odesa, 30% each. These will be three sources.”

And there is an important nuance. If agreements with the Russian companies disrupted on New Year's Eve, and Lukashenka instructed the government to look for oil elsewhere, most experts concluded that this was simply a blackmail aimed at the Russian Federation. Like, time will pass, we will make peace with Russia and forget about the alternative. This seems possible. But reconciliation with Moscow failed, and the ruler of Belarus finally understood this.

So now, speaking of alternative oil supplies, Lukashenka focuses on the word “long-term” (agreements). “Integrated and systemic infrastructure solutions are needed. We should consider the possibility of implementing joint projects with foreign companies - owners of raw materials,” he says. And it is worth attending.

According to Lukashenka, one of such projects should be the completion of an oil pipeline to the Baltic. There is an old pipeline from Soviet times, but it needs repair and completion. Lukashenka suggests taking a cheap loan in the USA (Secretary of State Mike Pompeo allegedly suggested it himself), and putting this pipeline in order in 1.5-2 years.

Well, as you know, it’s better late than never.

Valer Karbalevich, Radio Svaboda