Leanid Zaika About Coronavirus: Looking At Belarusian Authorities, You Realize That Catastrophe Has Already Started

Minsk will be the main source of infection.

On March 13, the Russian stock market collapsed record-breaking since the 1998 default. A little earlier, on March 9, "black Monday," because of the collapse of world oil prices, the Russian ruble dive-bombed, bringing the Belarusian currency down with it.

Analysts predict serious problems for the world economy in connection with the panic that has spread over the financial markets because of the coronavirus.

How will the coronavirus and the oil war between Saudi Arabia and Russia affect the economy of Belarus? Leanid Zaika, head of the Strategy analytical center and economist, answers the questions of Charter97.org.

- The Russian stocks collapsed to the level of the 1998 default. How can it affect the Belarusian economy?

- It is okay. In principle, the Russians have already passed it, because they were foolish to believe that foreign investment is a good thing. In 1998, 90% of foreign investment was portfolio capital. Money, dollars came, banks' securities were bought with it. And the capitalization of some entities ranged from 20 to 50 times, i.e. a smart owner invested $20 thousand in one of his acquaintances, oil producers, and then received a million dollars three years later. He could sell the shares and become a millionaire.

It's a normal phenomenon, everyone's been through it...

And the Belarusian enterprises do not care at all. They and their directors resemble a village museum. They need subsidies, help: take away from teachers, give it to the directors. Practically, especially after joining the EAEC, our enterprises are in the danger zone just technologically. When you have a headache and at the same time earache, the second one is not so terrible anymore. The Belarusian economy keeps on the enthusiasm of those people who stayed in the country. If the government with the group of top managers did not interfere, it could be okay, perhaps.

- The close relation between the Belarusian and Russian financial systems was once again confirmed on the "black Monday," when because of the fall in oil prices, the Russian currency collapsed and the Belarusian ruble was brought down. Now three other OPEC countries have joined the oil war of the Saudis. What could be the consequences for the Belarusian economy?

- It would be good for the fools, because they were looking stupidly for an alternative to Russian oil. It would look as if they have found it. At first it will be quite a funny question to yourself: "Guys, why were you looking for oil somewhere? There's a lot of shouting, and what they bought was an hour and a half or two of refinery operation.

The problem of relations with the Kremlin has also been cancelled. Putin offered prices, Igor Sechin came, they were arguing for $10, and oil has become $35. Couldn't you understand the trend in global development? So they were arguing. And petrol is getting cheaper, it's their fault. So think about it. You can already make a museum from the Belarusian oil refineries or a big laboratory for chemical students. These refineries are just a relic of the cold war.

The world will change faster than people in the Kremlin or Brussels think about it. Now there are important and powerful processes.

- How can the coronavirus pandemic affect our economy?

- Only positively. People will start reading newspapers, looking at the faces of ministers who say nothing is happening, and start thinking. Look, the Americans aren't letting Europeans in. Neighboring countries have closed down too. This is also a signal to the world economy that globalization and world markets are not the monopoly on the truth. They'll start thinking. And the fact that there will be less money - no big deal, we will be healthier.

The authorities are turning very badly with regard to the pandemic. Parents call me and say they're going to send their children to school.

- How do you assess the measures taken by the Belarusian authorities in the light of the epidemic?

- There have been no measures. All they say is to wash your hands. One might with the same result hang extracts from "Moydodir" in the government somewhere. As of today, nothing has been done. The most outstanding measure is that when I was buying a ticket at the stop, the lady in the kiosk was wearing a mask.

When I look at the majority of Belarusian officials, I immediately begin to think that an anthropological disaster has started in Belarus. D students had such faces at their exams. I won't lie, because I've been working in universities for so many years. Not a single expression on their faces says that they are good students. How they got there - that's the second thing. You see, they're all very close together, so the coronavirus can cling to all of them at once. It's gonna be hard for them.

- What measures would you take - both to save the citizens and to keep the economy afloat?

- The most important measure is personalization, introduction of a strong quarantine, the second is the development of a new strategy for the country's security, or else they built 15-storey buildings, drove the entire unfortunate peasant proletariat here and made the country simply biologically dangerous. Especially Minsk - it will now be the main source of infection. But it's only for the long-term perspective.

The economy is not the main thing now. The main thing is to preserve people and health. And today it is the introduction of quarantine, closure of the country, the transfer of classes in schools and institutes to Internet education.

I talked to my colleagues in the morning, and they found that the Internet works as an online education more efficiently. We are all pushed towards a new intellectual economy and to gather children in some big halls for 300 people - this is done only to demonstrate the "high intellect" of professors. Teaching should be individualised through the Internet, through webinars. The very model of education is changing.

As for enterprises. It is necessary to say bluntly that for today we need to introduce facilitated shifts. Our sales are already slowing down, GDP is falling by 1.9%. There's no need to be obstinate, there will still be a fall. And there's no need to lie that it's related to the virus. There will be no growth in the economy.

And after the pandemic, there are two ways to recover. The first one is to go back to your debauched wife, that is, where we used to be. And the second is to analyze carefully all the negative and positive consequences. Look at the resettlement of people and population policy. There are a lot of interesting points here, but I am afraid that our political public is not educated enough to do it seriously. There is a civilizational breakdown: we are moving from the old society with industrial enterprises to the economy of robots and intellectuals. If you look broadly, we will start a new development of civilization.

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