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Dzmitry Bandarenka: Lukashenka Already Lost

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Dzmitry Bandarenka: Lukashenka Already Lost
PHOTO: ANDREI BORTNIKAU/BORTNIKAU.LIVEJOURNAL.COM

The Government of National Salvation will be created in Belarus.

Positive changes in Belarus are associated with the resignation of Lukashenka, said coordinator of the European Belarus civil campaign Dzmitry Bandarenka, commenting on the situation in the country in the recent months in an interview with Charter97.org.

- More than once I heard statements that this year will be, at the very least, very important for the future of Belarus. Against this background, information appeared that Lukashenka could schedule the presidential election for June 31. How likely is this and why is there such a rush?

- Now in Europe and the world there is an unprecedented epidemic of coronavirus, the consequences of which harm not only human health, but also the economies of many countries, radically change the behavior of citizens and entire states. If Lukashenka makes the election date closer, this will be completely misunderstood in the world. Moreover, I think that this is absolutely impossible now. At the time of the outbreak in Europe and Belarus, it will look just wild.

For example, in Poland, where the presidential campaign is already in full swing, the possibility of postponing elections is being discussed and unprecedented anti-epidemic measures are being taken. Yesterday, current president Andrzej Duda said that for the sake of security he was refusing mass meetings with voters.

At the same time, I want to agree with the assessment that this year will be decisive in the contemporary history of Belarus.

- You mentioned the coronavirus epidemic as one of the important factors in the world and European politics today. Are the measures taken by the Belarusian authorities adequate?

- Compared to other countries - the same Poland and EU states - it is clear that the Belarusian authorities inadequately assess the current situation. Many note that Lukashenka as he met with ministers yesterday, discussed any topics but not the coronavirus.

This means an absolutely inadequate assessment of the situation on the part of the dictator, and since the system is vertical, of the whole power. The statements of the Minister of Health of Belarus are simply shocking when he says that “we do not expect severe cases of coronavirus”, that we have some kind of “special health care”. It is “special” because of its backwardness compared to other countries.

The leadership of the EU countries is in close contact, they are discussing among themselves ways to combat the epidemic. The ministers of health and leading doctors of these countries are in constant contact, and are taking unprecedented measures.

Warsaw Medical University suspends its studies until early May. And in our BNTU, where cases of coronavirus were recorded, quarantine was terminated ahead of schedule. This inadequacy of Lukashenka and, accordingly, the inadequacy of the healthcare system and the entire state system can cost Belarusians dearly.

In many countries, the situation with coronavirus is discussed at the level of the National Security Councils with the participation of ministries of health, ministries of defense, special services, and so on. Against this background, what is happening in Belarus, this so-called “crisis management”, is simply amazing.

- On March 9, the oil price collapsed by 31%, as in 1991, after Desert Storm and before the collapse of the USSR. How do you assess the situation of the two allied dictatorships - Russian and Belarusian?

- Dictatorships appeared in a very difficult situation. There is such a principle: small dictatorships exist as long as there are large, or while large dictatorships are able to support them. The situation with the coronavirus epidemic is one very serious factor that will hit and has hit the global economy. The global drop in oil prices is the second factor. Naturally, prices will play a little, but still they will not be so high this year. This already means serious losses for Belarusian exports (which fell by at least 40% in the first 2 months), the bulk of which are oil products from Russian oil. Of course, this will hit the income and inflow of currency to the country.

The third factor is that now we do not even have Russian oil, and oil refineries operate at one third of their capacities.

The fourth factor is the inadequacy of the Belarusian dictator and, accordingly, the entire Belarusian leadership.

The falling oil prices will certainly hit Russia, but I am not a specialist in the Russian economy. It is difficult to judge what the situation is in Russia now: they have significantly higher oil revenues, there are significant funds from the sale, created at the request of sensible people like Alexei Kudrin, in those years when the oil price was high. That is, a safety net exists in the Russian Federation, but Russia will not save the Shklov eccentric by any means.

For our country, all these factors absolutely repeat, or maybe even surpass what was at the time of the collapse of the USSR - this is obvious, and Belarus is now on the verge of radical changes. Moreover, in addition to people's fatigue from Lukashenka, and the low standard of living of Belarusians, this is also due to the few economic blows that the country received in the recent months.

- Are there forces in Belarus that are ready to take advantage of the unique situation in order to really compete for power?

- The need for a change of power in Belarus is overripe and remains very acute - this is a fact. There are enough people who are ready to rule the country, and I think that if we discard the immediate actions of the transition period, then a certain Government of National Salvation will appear, which will include both representatives of the opposition, and sensible authorities. I think that the Belarusian army will play a role in this, in which there are now enough patriots and responsible people who correctly assess the situation in the country. In the transition period, the army will become a stabilizing factor: after Lukashenka leaves his post, and before the period of free elections, power structures will have to ensure stability in the country and guarantee free choice of Belarusians.

Despite the very difficult situation in Ukraine, as a result, it was people in uniform who were able not only to protect the country's independence, but also to ensure stability during the period of democratic and economic reforms.

Initially, the political struggle in our country will undoubtedly be waged by the democratic forces of Belarus and the Belarusian opposition. And then, apparently, the broad Government of National Salvation will already operate.

- You said: “After Lukashenka leaves his post.” How and when can this happen?

- One way or another, this process will be associated with the upcoming elections - Lukashenka will not get away from this. It is already evident that he lost and is unable to solve the most acute problems that he himself created during his reign, as well as those problems that have appeared in the recent months - and they are also associated with his unsuccessful activity as a leader.

We know that about 90% of Belarusians hate Lukashenka, and only about 10% support him. It is simply impossible to rig the election when 90% of the people are against you. It will not be possible to repeat what happened before when Lukashenka needed to falsify 30-40% in the presidential election in a much better economic situation. Now it is necessary to falsify already 90% - in the conditions of the declining economy and emerging issues that need to be addressed quickly and effectively. Under these conditions, Lukashenka will not be able to rule the country. This is clear today not only for the opposition and ordinary people - it is already clear for the officials and the ruling clan. Lukashenka is no longer a guarantor of their comfortable existence.

- How do you assess the ongoing campaign in Belarus on the primaries of a single candidate from a part of the opposition?

- I am very skeptical, because it’s impossible to call it “primaries”. At one time, I was in the USA twice during real primaries, and I can say that it’s simply impossible to call so this party vagrant hangout.

Primaries are typical primarily for the United States, where each person, upon receipt of documents, writes down who he is - a Republican, a Democrat, or someone else. In America, this system is designed so that at each level from each party it is possible to choose the best representatives. The state is engaged in this; millions of people are participating in the primaries. What is happening in Belarus now is something completely different.

The second point: there is one person who deserves respect and could become the leader of at least protests in today's situation. This is Pavel Seviarynets. What he does in this event is completely incomprehensible. At least, even in connection with the epidemic of coronavirus, it is already clear that this case must be stopped as soon as possible. If there are decent people in the parties that organized this event (and I’m sure that there are), they should stop it as soon as possible, because during a coronavirus epidemic, there must be no traveling around the country. Here we will talk about their adequacy.

For a month, at least all countries introduce quarantine anti-epidemic measures. And democratic politicians just now have the opportunity to fix that there is a leader - Pavel Seviarynets, to help him form a headquarters, because a possible leader of this group does not have a headquarters today, and prepare to use the official election campaign, as well as prepare for possible protests of the population against the existing government.

I think that this headquarters around Pavel Seviarynets will be created, and the people who unconditionally believe in victory, who believe street protests to be a very likely element of a change of power in Belarus, who are ready to work to change the situation, to save Belarus 24/7, and set aside their petty ambitions, at least until the free elections in Belarus, should join it.

- In addition to the coronavirus epidemic and elections - what else will determine the fate of our country in the near future?

- The most important thing is the political will of the leaders of the democratic forces for these changes. And also - the presence of a strategy or plan in which everyone would find a place. Because the situation is such that many leaders cannot participate even in these formal elections.

And if we are talking about the so-called “primaries,” let's say whether it is possible to compare the people who participate in the event with the people who for various reasons cannot participate in the elections: Andrei Sannikov, Mikalai Statkevich, Henadz Fiadynich, Uladzimir Niakliayeu? Are the individuals who participate in the “primaries” comparable with those whom I named?

Needless to say, there will be a “unification of the entire opposition”, about which the so-called independent media write. In a real unification of the opposition, there should be a place for everyone who sets the goal of a change of power in 2020. And I, as the coordinator of the European Belarus, will say: we are negotiating with all sane forces, we are participating in the development of such strategy, and are ready to act in concert with such leaders and responsible political forces.

A lot is at stake, namely, the fate of our country. Positive changes in Belarus can happen only after the resignation of Lukashenka. This is our goal for the coming months. And we see that there are a lot of people in the country who are ready to take responsibility, and give all the best at this key and dramatic moment in our history.

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