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Scenario of the Victory of the Belarusian Revolution - Protests Plus Economic Sanctions

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Scenario of the Victory of the Belarusian Revolution - Protests Plus Economic Sanctions
Natallia Radzina

The Belarusians have a chance to win in the near future.

Natallia Radzina, editor-in-chief of the website Charter97.org, stated this during the conference of the Free Russia Forum "The Right to Uprising." The event was attended by one of the leaders of the Russian opposition Garry Kasparov, a well-known expert, president of the Institute of Economic Analysis Andrei Illarionov, president of the All-Russian public movement Union of Right Forces Leonid Gozman, former deputy head of the presidential administration of Ukraine, member of the Batkivshchyna party Andriy Senchenko, one of the leaders of the Libertarian Party of Russia Mikhail Svetov, famous Armenian human rights activist and public figure Stepan Grigoryan and others.

The situation in Belarus was actively discussed during the conference. Here are excerpts from Natallia Radzina's speeches:

- The revolution in Belarus continues. The protests have not subsided. Yes, we can say that, at the moment, they have become somewhat less massive, but, nevertheless, protests in Belarusian society have become a lifestyle. The most important thing that happened was that the people terminated the so-called social contract with the government.

Since we are talking about the right to revolt, I want to recall Jean-Jacques Rousseau, who in the 18th century said that "if the government forgets its duties as an official, if it tramples on civil rights, if it does not respect their property rights, if its power turned into tyranny, the people have every right to rebel against such a government, i.e. cancel the social contract with him." This is what we have today in Belarus. Yes, we have a tough repressive system that Lukashenka has been building for 26 years. Over the past months, more than 30 thousand people have been imprisoned in Belarus. Thousands of people are in prisons and are political prisoners. If we talk about leaders, then the leaders are in prisons today, and if a person who declares some leadership positions appears, he is immediately arrested and imprisoned for a fabricated political case. More than a thousand political criminal cases have been initiated today.

Nevertheless, today various social groups are constantly gaining leadership positions in Belarus. These are workers, doctors, athletes, artists, teachers, students, and journalists. The revolutionary process continues, and each group contributes something of its own to the common cause. Therefore, I am convinced that, in any case, we will come to victory. Yes, protests in Belarus are non-violent, but they take a variety of forms: street, economic, underground, and partisan. In the end, this can lead to victory, but a set of measures is needed.

I am convinced that it is necessary to continue the non-violent protests that are taking place in Belarus. I am convinced that they will become more widespread next year, in winter, in spring, because the economic situation in Belarus is very difficult. All experts state this, and Lukashenka has no prospects today. The maintenance of the repressive apparatus today requires huge funds, which are simply not available in the budget. We see that Lukashenka is not recognized by the West. He can no longer receive loans from there, and Russia is unable to maintain this satellite regime in the same volume. Therefore, I am convinced that the protests in Belarus will flare up with renewed vigor in the very near future.

In addition, it is important to exert serious international pressure on Lukashenka's regime today. Unfortunately, the West's reaction to the lawlessness that is taking place in Belarus today is insufficient; it is too weak. Therefore, today we insist that tough economic sanctions be imposed on Lukashenka's regime. We are talking about a ban on the purchase of oil products and potash fertilizers from Belarus, disconnecting Belarusian banks from the SWIFT system, expelling Belarusian ambassadors from Western states, imposing sanctions against those state-owned enterprises that today suppress the labor movement and the workers' right to strike. Therefore, it seems to me that, in combination, non-violent mass protests plus tough economic sanctions against Lukashenka's regime can lead us to success.

In response to whether non-violent resistance can be successful, I can say that there are no prerequisites for any violent resistance in Belarus because, unlike Ukraine, there were no paramilitary organizations in Belarus. In Ukraine, they were nevertheless created, yes, under the control of the special services, but still, these patriotic military organizations existed in Ukraine. They have never been in Belarus; how can people without weapons protest?

By the way, representatives of Ukrainian nationalist organizations told me that it is necessary to avoid violence as much as possible because too high a price has to be paid. Yes, I understand the radicalization of the protests is inevitable because people are faced with lawlessness on the part of the security forces when people today are simply killed on the streets of Minsk and other cities, when security officials shoot at them, when not a single criminal case has been initiated for the murder of peaceful protesters. I am convinced that radicalization will occur, it is an inevitable process, but we are trying to avoid this violence because, indeed, it is scary and can lead to tough confrontation for a very long time. And then, big losses are inevitable from both sides. I can't guarantee whether it will be avoided because people in Belarus today are absolutely defenseless before the security forces, and some will defend themselves.

The Belarusian opposition has always been a follower of Gene Sharp's teachings: non-violent resistance is moral resistance, and it is carried out because the state has a much larger arsenal of violence.

Therefore, we will continue to protest in this way: street, strike, partisan actions, and mandatory external economic pressure. Here I would call on you, Russian democrats, to support the Belarusians in our struggle for freedom, and I am very grateful to the Free Russia Forum, which raises very important issues. Today we need solidarity, first of all, from you, from the Russian democrats, in putting pressure on Putin to stop supporting this fascist Lukashenka's regime. Today we need your connections, your support in working with the West so that economic sanctions against the dictatorship are introduced. Trust me, a few months of such tough sanctions are enough, and the regime will fall. Therefore, this is our common struggle, let's act together, and it seems to me that a lot in the world, including Russia, depends on how the revolution in Belarus ends.

- Can you win with non-violent resistance?

- In general, if one draws the results and somehow extrapolates this to the situation in Belarus, it is important what Andrei Illarionov said about the fact that non-violent resistance works only if the authorities themselves renounced violence, and, in 73 percent of cases, it works if violent retaliatory resistance appears. Stepan Grigoryan noted an important thing: non-violent resistance requires elements of violent resistance. A good example is that during the revolution in Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan seized the radio in order to get access to the air, and this is also important.

I would say that there are, of course, mistakes, including in the organization of protests in Belarus. This is a long conversation. We saw the indecision of both Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya's headquarters and the so-called Coordinating Council, which was created in the first days after the protests on August 9. There were random people who previously had nothing to do with the opposition and did not consider the experience of the people of the so-called "old" opposition, which for years, decades fought against Lukashenka's regime, organized mass protests, organized rallies on squares after each rigged elections. And what Mikhail Svetov said is very important. Yes, there was hope for Telegram channels, in particular, for NEXTA. They did a lot for the Belarusian revolution, but they were dizzy with success, and, in general, they do not know how to coordinate protests. But again, they refuse to listen to the experienced people who organized these protests for many years, and the duration of the protests, as Stepan Grigoryan spoke about, is really important because the people who fought for a decade against Lukashenka's regime led to the fact that in 2020 there was a revolution and a general popular upsurge.

The decisiveness of the leaders of the protest is very important. Yes, today we see that many of them are in prisons, but I am sure that the Belarusian people and the Belarusian nation will give birth to new heroes. There are actually many leaders, and everyone feels like a leader, but it is very important to materialize our struggle and set a goal. I am against an armed uprising, especially since I know that it is impossible. Andrey Senchenko said a very important thing, supporting my thesis that non-violent resistance plus serious international economic sanctions can lead to success.

Therefore, our path is non-violent resistance, and there will be a split in the elites if there are serious international economic sanctions, as Garry Kasparov said. The economic situation in Belarus is very difficult; there is no way out of this situation; for Lukashenka, it is a dead end. There is nowhere to take money from. He begins to gradually spend his own reserves, but this person is very greedy; he will not return a lot of stolen money to the country, even for his own guards' maintenance. I am convinced that non-violent resistance plus international economic sanctions will lead to a split of the elites, the disintegration of the power apparatus, and victory in the revolution.

- If there wasn't Kremlin's support, could the situation in Belarus fundamentally change?

- Certainly. If there was no support from Russia, then we would have already forgotten who Lukashenka was back in 1999 because, all these years, the regime existed exclusively on Russian money, Russian subsidies. It was thanks to the political support of the Kremlin, thanks to cheap energy resources that were supplied to Belarus, and then safely processed and sent to the West at a much higher price, thanks to non-repayable loans, i.e. if not for this financial support for Lukashenka's dictatorship, believe me, Belarusians would have removed this dictator on their own and would have forgotten about him. Today, it would be a normal European democratic country, but what we see now is a continuation of the very policy of the Kremlin to support the dictatorship, because Putin recognized Lukashenka's regime as legitimate, congratulated on the so-called victory in the elections, although, not a single normal country did this in the civilized world.

Russian support still exists. This is also propaganda of the landing troop that arrived in Belarus in the first days after the elections because employees of the state media began to leave en masse in protest against the violence in the country. Financial support continued, Putin made a statement about the likelihood of military support to suppress the protests. This also played a role and influenced the security forces, their cruelty, their sense of impunity. Russia has enormous reputational losses from this because today, we are witnessing a significant increase in anti-Russian sentiments, and people are well aware of what Putin is doing by supporting Lukashenka. In general, Russia is becoming an accomplice in the crimes that the regime is committing against the people in Belarus today, an accomplice in these killings, torture, and humiliation of people, which we observe every day.

Plus, I'm sure there will be economic costs for Russia as a result of international sanctions, which will continue to be imposed by the European Union and the United States. And so it is very important that the Russian democrats continue to put serious pressure on the Putin regime. These may be protest actions or any actions that would put pressure on the Kremlin to stop supporting the illegitimate regime of Lukashenka in Belarus. It is also important to help us promote the demand for serious economic sanctions today.

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