29 March 2024, Friday, 5:22
Support
the website
Sim Sim,
Charter 97!
Categories

Andrei Sannikov: Bolton's Visit Is Obviously A Step In Support Of Belarus' Independence

14
Andrei Sannikov: Bolton's Visit Is Obviously A Step In Support Of Belarus' Independence
Andrei Sannikov

Our country is strategically important for security in the region and the world.

The U.S. edition of Foreign Policy reported that U.S. presidential advisor on national security John Bolton would visit Belarus soon - possibly this week.

The announcement of the "Washington Hawk's" visit to Minsk was a surprise and gave rise to a lot of opinions in the media.

Andrei Sannikov, the leader of the European Belarus civil campaign, a presidential candidate in the 2010 elections, commented on the situation for Charter97.org.

- What are the reasons for the visit of the Advisor to the US President? What goals might the White House pursue, sending Bolton to our country?

- Indeed, Belarus hasn't been visited by an American representative of such a level for a long time, but first of all, I would like to note that it is not a special visit to Belarus - it is a visit to Ukraine, Moldova and our country.

That is, it is planned to visit at least three countries during this visit.

And this already sets the format of the talks: for Belarus is clearly out of the context of the development of the three countries. First of all, I would say that Ukraine and Moldova have elections. The situation is developing there, positive changes are taking place as a result of the elections, despite the many problems that exist in these countries.

And in Belarus - the last dictatorship in Europe - time is standing still. It is important for understanding the context of John Bolton's visit.

At the same time, Belarus is important for the interests of the United States. I think that in any case, John Bolton's visit to Minsk should be welcomed.

I would link this visit to a recent report on measures to contain Russia, made by RAND, a US-based corporation, which is an influential analytical and strategic center. If you remember, for the first time Belarus was called there the most important geopolitical factor in the region.

In addition, it was pointed out that the liberalization and democratization of Belarus would have the greatest positive impact on the region. The report touched upon the penalties of this process, but it stressed its importance and the potential benefits of not "supporting stability," which Lukashenka insists on with regard to his regime, but of supporting the democratization.

I think it is worth considering John Bolton's visit to Minsk from this point of view.

- To whom is Bolton's visit sending a signal: to the Kremlin, the Belarusian opposition or Lukashenka? Which context is most important?

- Let's keep up with the logic of what was mentioned above. Bolton's visit to Ukraine and Moldova is caused by the development of the situation in a positive way, while his visit to Belarus is caused by the danger our country poses now under Lukashenka's rule for the region and the world.

Look at what has happened recently. First of all, there are reports that Belarus has significantly increased its military potential. And this military potential has increased owing to the supply of S-400 missile systems and modern Su-30SM fighters from Russia.

The second thing is that Russia is building a nuclear power plant in Belarus. At the same time, nuclear accidents occur with frightening frequency on the territory of Russia itself. Thus, Severodvinsk has become the world's largest nuclear disaster because of Russia's devil-may-care attitude to safety issues. Speaking about the security of the region, we should take into account not only the military, but also the technological component.

And Lukashenka's readiness to cooperate with Russia in the military sphere also concerns the U.S. After the Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate Range and Shorter Range Missiles ceased to exist, there is talk that the Kremlin is going to deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus.

I think that Bolton's visit was caused by the danger of the situation in the region and the undermining of our independence by Russia, including with the help of Lukashenka.

And whoever this visit "will frighten" or "will not frighten" is a secondary matter. I think that Bolton's visit should be seen as an obvious step in support of the independence of Belarus, an attempt to understand the threats posed by Belarus due to its military and technological cooperation with Russia, as well as the Russian pressure on our country, which has recently increased.

I think it will be possible to judge on the results of the visit, but so far, I see that the fact that Belarus is becoming an important strategic point is working here. This factor is important for us and it is positive.

- What are the consequences of Bolton's visit to Minsk for our country and the region?

- First of all, I would like to say about the operational consequences: I think that the U.S. embassy will resume its activities in full soon after the visit. That is, the issue with the ambassador's arrival will be resolved. The visit of the U.S. ambassador to Belarus will mean that the attention to our country will not weaken.

Knowing Bolton's style, it is not likely that he will make public statements about human rights and democracy in Belarus, but I think these issues will be on the agenda of his meetings in Minsk.

John Bolton, as the US president's national security advisor, is known for his assertive policy with regard to dictators. It will be recalled that he is the most consistent in defending democratic reforms in Venezuela and in his criticism of Lukashenka's friend, dictator Nicolas Maduro.

I think that in any case, after the visit, the dialogue will be somewhat different. Security issues will be clearer for the Americans and there will be an understanding of how the situation develops in Belarus.

It is very important that John Bolton comes on the eve of the election cycle, when entire Lukashenka's administrative machinery is preparing for another falsification. They will, of course, talk his ear off regarding "the most democratic elections," but the U.S. will have an opportunity to check it in the near future.

I hope that the US understanding of the situation in our country will be in favor of supporting democracy, ensuring human rights and, ultimately, holding fair and democratic elections in Belarus.

Write your comment 14

Follow Charter97.org social media accounts