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Economist: They Earn Wild Money On Belarusian Drivers

Economist: They Earn Wild Money On Belarusian Drivers

How will the Belgi saga end?

On April 10, Lukashenka signed a Decree #140 on the return of half of the amount of customs duties for passenger cars imported from outside the border of the Customs Union to people with disabilities and large families.

How relevant is this Decree? Does it meet the needs of Belarusian motorists?

The website Charter97.org talked with the head of the analytical center “Strategy”, economist Leanid Zaika.

- Are Belarusian citizens with disabilities and mother with many children rich enough to buy themselves foreign cars? Or is it yet another loophole for secondhand dealers?

- There are always pros and conts. Let's first try to look at it from the point of view of a normal person.

Belarusians really need family cars now. These are usually American and Japanese vans. No one produces them on the territory of the “taiga union” though. Therefore, I admit that some families really go for the cars of this type.

The second problem of the automotive market, which I came across myself here, is the impossibility to buy a cheap camper van.

In Europe, you can buy it for 5-7 thousand euros. And when importing to Belarus, one will have to pay another 15 thousand euros. This niche was stupidly closed by increased customs tariffs. Why was it supposed to introduce tariffs supposedly to “protect the market of the Customs Union” if such cars are not made either in Russia or in Armenia or in Kazakhstan?

And the lifestyle of people develops, and they dream of such purchases. And in general, based on common sense, there should be no customs tariffs for family cars. What about family support? Only those who have introduced these duties earn wild money on them, people do not need it.

As for the people with disabilities, this is not such a relevant category in the sense of buying a car abroad. And here, of course, any processes are possible.

I do not think that the success of outbidding because of the decree #140 will be durable. Buying and reselling used cars is already a marginal topic, the era of outbids is ending.

Previously, yes, Belarusians bought up to 200 thousand used cars a year. 20 years ago, the average price of a used car was about 2 thousand dollars. But these times have sunk into oblivion. Therefore, I do not think that because of this decree, a boom in the sale of used cars in Belarus will begin.

- However, the media already published the stories of those who went to bring automobiles under a PoA. They report, besides, that the customs officers often turn them back, demanding a physical presence of the benefit holder. Do you think this decree will be suspended, as it happened with Decree #6 once?

- I will say, it will depend on the frequency of application of shadow schemes. In my opinion, about 15% of Belarusians (those whom I call the poorest category by car selection criteria) are ready to resort to them. They will seek to earn (or save) at least 200-300 dollars in every possible way.

But, alas, this is the philosophy of yesterday. Unfortunately, our authorities pursue a policy that allows it to be maintained.

I remember one of my college friends, who in the 1970s could only buy a used Zaporozhets. So he bought three or four such cars - such a housewifely, provident guy. And there are many of them - strong rural business executives - both in the government and among the people.

They will save 200-300 dollars (1000 on three cars) and take scrap. This is the psychology of the 90s. Why do all this stuff? Today in the world, people buy new cars, mostly on credit. Here, for example, the new Volkswagen Polo became a sales hit. Theoretically, it will satisfy any Belarusian. This is just a question of opportunity and psychology.

Of course, car riders still operate here, but in reality this is a category of endangered dinosaurs who have not found their place in life.

I had a case about 10 years ago, when I argued with car riders - such colorful guys from Russia, selling used European cars for 12-15-20 thousand dollars. I looked at their product and said: “Guys, in 10-15 years this will crash, no one will drive such cars”. They did not believe then. But now for 12-14 thousand you can buy a new car - the same Russian Lada Vesta.

Still, we have a significant part of the population, who prefers to buy a used car, not counting how much it will cost to replace the gearbox, replace the chassis. And how much time will be lost when this junk breaks down on the road: children would cry, women would beat the drivers in the heads with their purses.

Unfortunately, due to the general situation in the country, we have preserved this psychology of a poor, secondhand mass. But believe me, this is already yesterday in the world.

- You have mentioned the Russian Lada. Judging by the comments on the automobilists’ forums, Belarusians don’t really fancy the Russian automobile industry and seem unwilling to change European and American cars for ladas… Even after the sharp increase of the customs duties.

- That was until the last two years. But recently they got the model Lada Vesta, which beat all previous models by sales. And they really were unsuccessful - all these Kalinas, Malinas, Siabrynas...

I can say that the attitude of Belarusians to the models of Vesta and Xray is changing. But, of course, for this you need to sit behind the wheel of a car, and new cars, even Russian ones, are far from affordable for everyone.

We still have among the drivers the category of guys in oily pants, who spend most of their time in garages under cars. I myself have such a neighbor - he has been removing rust off an Audi for 20 years.

Our state does not give him the opportunity to make his workshop. The power has deprived such people of the opportunity to make their own self-made aircraft or helicopter and get rich on this. And then a person who understands the technique, closes in the garage and works on his old car, spending a lot of time. If you count it purely economically - it turns out very unprofitable and inefficient.

Instead of inviting large companies to the country - Toyota, Reno, Nissan, Volkswagen - our authorities went the other way. In the Russian Federation, for example, foreign companies make 150 models of new cars.

And the Belarusian kolkhoz leadership has sat down on the Chinese “boneshakers”, and so it is.

- Do you mean Belgi?

- Yes. This is done generally at the level of backward models, which are roughly stuck together, and in essence - stolen from Japanese Mitsubishi.

All these projects are absolutely unpromising. Remember how the “greatest technologists” assembled the Iranian Samand? And now they are making the same nonsense - the Chinese Belgi. I do not even want to pronounce this name.

There is such a small but proud country - Georgia. It never did anything like that - only a Kolkhida tractor was assembled with two hammers. There was never real automobile engineering. Now they are building a plant for 40 thousand electric vehicles.

Everything that has been done in Belarus in comparison with this is yesterday, the old internal combustion engines. Therefore, speaking to our officials in Vitsebsk, I asked: “Guys, do you even move your brains somehow? In the world, a war broke out between major Japanese and American manufacturers of electric cars. And all of you in the old manner twist the nuts at the Navapolatsk refinery. Who will you sell your gasoline in 5-8 years? No one will buy it.”

But for our authorities, an electric car is some kind of completely incomprehensible beast. Those who will produce the old internal combustion engines will move into oblivion, die.

- Does Belgi face the same destiny?

- I don’t want to sound too nihilistic, but even in the opinion of the Chinese themselves, this is not a factory, but an automobile workshop. They don't assess it highly.

For them, this is not the best and not the most necessary local assembly shop. What comes out of this line? A car for the foreman of the collective farm “Path to the New Communism." To buy a car of a certain class, you need certain intelligence. Especially, this refers to production.

And the sovkhoz brigadier saddled the outdated Chinese internal-combustion engine, offering it to everyone else. Where will it lead? I can say for sure that Lukashenka will not drive it. The Prime Minister will not buy this car for himself and will not give it to his wife - I am absolutely sure of that. As for an ordinary Belarusian man - let him drive it. When did they care about the Belarusian people?

This is a backward solution in terms of technology , just like our power in general.

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