29 March 2024, Friday, 17:06
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Mikalai Statkevich: First, Fair Elections Will Be Reinstated in Belarus

Mikalai Statkevich: First, Fair Elections Will Be Reinstated in Belarus

Russia should not save the dictator hated by the people.

Relations between Moscow and Minsk turned spikiest. Amid trade wars and rumors about the Kremlin's readiness to strengthen pressure on Lukashenka, following the Ukrainian scenario, a new ambassador Mikhail Babich was sent to Belarus. At the same time, the hammer is being dropped in Belarus itself: after the demolition of crosses by the authorities in Kurapaty, the place of execution of more than a hundred thousand victims of Stalin's repressions, a wave of administrative arrests took place among the opposition. Russian Novaya Gazeta talked to one of the leaders of the Belarusian opposition, Mikalai Statkevich, about relations between Moscow and Minsk, as well as about the situation in Belarus.

- You are called the staunchest opponent of Lukashenka. Over the past 15 years you have spent in prisons and other places of deprivation of liberty for 8 years. What does motivate you? Why don't you leave Belarus?

- Mr. Lukashenka is also very concerned about it. Why should I leave? This is my country. I know that many people believe in me and follow me. I can't betray these people. There is the dictatorship in the country. But when I come to any district center, they recognize me. People approach me, express words of support and hope that I will solve their problems. I have heard many times: please do not leave us. I feel responsible. It's just more than my life. The struggle against Lukashenka does not come first for me. I am just standing for a decent country and a decent life for people.

- The other day, you were released after 15 days of arrest for calling people to pray near the Minsk Cathedral for the crosses demolished in Kurapaty. How do you like another arrest? What were detention conditions?

- My prison experience is too big, so these 15 days did not impress me. It was as usual: the administrative arrest was accompanied by minor provocations from prison guards.

The rest of the time I was reading. I read "History of Economic Thought" by Henri Denis. I wanted to do it for a long time, but I had no free time. And during the arrest, I swallowed it like a detective.

- Your last detention also resembled a detective. You were grabbed while leaving your home, you were on your way to the prayer service near the Cathedral in the center of Minsk...

- This preventive practice began in 2017, when people started taking to the streets against a completely insane decree on taxes for the unemployed. The authorities were then afraid and the decree was frozen. The KGB and the police are constantly watching the house I live in.

Sometimes I don't leave my house a week before an action, and then I reach the place accompanied by Belsat journalists. But this method is not a panacea. This time I couldn't make it through the "tail". But the event was held - several hundred people were not afraid to gather in the center of Minsk. Several times more people were observed nearby.

We realise that the Belarusian authorities are afraid even of a prayer, and it already smells like frenzy.

- The arrests of opposition members, including you, were preceded by the demolition of crosses at the site of the execution of the victims of Stalin's repressions in Kurapaty. It would seem that many events in Belarus have long been a routine for the international community. But the story with the crosses caused shock. What is going on in Belarus now?

- It's the agony of the regime that has run out of all its resources, including electoral ones. The war with crosses and prayers shocked even absolutely apolitical Belarusians. This psychosis and irrationality of the authorities come from recognition of an impasse and fear.

The impasse is, first of all, observed in the economy. Lukashenka cannot build a new economy based on the right to property, an independent court, or control over independent mass media. To retain power, he needs to control all cash flows and almost all jobs. But such an economy is loss-making. Until recently, the losses were covered by Russia, but as it turned out, not for free.

- Speaking of Russia. New Ambassador Mikhail Babich is now pursuing a very active policy in Belarus. Meanwhile, "trade wars" continue, Rosselkhoznadzor blocks the supply of goods from Belarus, while Lukashenka wants to close the pipeline for repair. What does really happen in the Belarusian-Russian relations?

- Babich has a specific instruction - it's the problem of 2024, when Putin's powers as president of the Russian Federation expire. Now the Kremlin is slowly reducing support for Lukashenka's regime. The country is built by Lukashenka as a collective farm - on Russian subsidies. For some reason, he thought that he could hold an endless talk upon a union with Russia, and destroy the national identity as a fee for support, and sit in his chair forever.

It turned out that it was not for free. The Russian authorities supported him in order to annex Belarus.

Lukashenka has already sold Beltransgaz to Russia. If earlier, when Russia tried to raise gas prices, Lukashenka was just closing the pipeline to the West, now he's lost this opportunity. In addition, Russia now has Nord Stream-1.

Now Lukashenka has two options: either to carry out reforms or to leave everything as it is. He is afraid of the first option, because he knows that the control over financial flows and jobs is lost, which means an inevitable loss of power. And if nothing is done, sooner or later a social explosion upheaval comes, the one that the fate of some dictators will seem a good one. The suppressed hatred is frightening, especially on the part of the seemingly peaceful Belarusians who used to hide their emotions.

- Is Lukashenka still popular? This year's parliamentary elections may be held in Belarus, next year presidential elections follow. He's going to run for the 7th term.

- You know, independent sociology with a few exceptions is banned here. Personal published surveys must be coordinated by specialists in the Lukashenka Administration. But focus groups are allowed. And all sociologists say that the most common words used in the province are hatred for Lukashenka.

We can say that about 80 percent of the population, who, according to surveys, hate the ruler and want changes.

The attitude of Belarusians to power has changed drastically. If earlier educated democratic Minsk used to be the center of resistance, now the regions which used to be Lukashenka's electoral base for 10-15 years show an extreme degree of hatred. The eastern regions express the greatest discontent; the economic situation there is the worst: the salary of $150 is considered good, while prices are higher than those of our neighbors...

Lukashenka feels this hatred. It scares him. But he will run for the elections. However, he will have to bargain with Russia, to make concessions, to shuffle. And your government cannot give up on Lukashenka yet. He is annoying, but Russia is bound to him. He is the only guarantor of the Union Treaty. He is its initiator and the main beneficiary.

Lukashenka himself wants to stay in power for as long as possible and outlast Putin.

- Let's assume that the opposition in Belarus came to power. What is your first step? And how do you see your relations with Russia in case of your victory?

- First, fair elections will be reinstated. They do not available now. They are not even rigged here. We simply do not have them - the election commissions appointed by the regime only play votes counting. And then the country's policy will be determined by institutions elected at these elections. First of all, it's the parliament.

As for relations with Russia, we will revise the Union Treaty. And there will be no final unification, even in general terms, but a strategic partnership. We would like friendly, economic, cultural and political cooperation. But we will not allow interference in our internal affairs.

You know, we drew conclusions from the Ukrainian events. We hope that Russia did the same. If Russia tries to save the dictator hated by the people, it can bare grave consequences. After all, the Belarusians still have a positive attitude towards Russia, just as the Ukrainians used to. But this attitude may drastically and unexpectedly change. And if Russia does not want to turn another friendly people into hostile ones, we are ready to be good neighbors. We are ready to negotiate, to provide guarantees that there will never be NATO forces on our territory, for example... Just do not interfere in our internal life.

- How does the Belarusian opposition look like today? Do you have a team?

- Unfortunately, we have eight special services in the country. The problem of the influence of these services is a common topic for all post-Soviet countries. Sooner or later, the leader of the opposition party faces a choice - long-term imprisonment or cooperation with the regime.

There are different people in the opposition: there are those who are ready to stand their ground to the end, and those who make concessions. The only real opposition coalition now is the Belarusian National Congress; its Council includes the leaders of 7 national organizations (including the first head of independent Belarus, Stanislau Shushkevich, famous poet Uladzimir Nyaklyayew, diplomat Andrei Sannikov, trade union leader Henadz Fiadynich) and the leaders of 14 regional coalitions. The coalition also has talented leaders in the regions. The BNC has nominated me for the presidency. I have a criminal record, but according to the Constitution I have the right to participate in elections.

I am optimistic about the future. Sooner or later we will change this power by peaceful means. It will be hard to build the country anew. But the main thing is that people change. We feel the support of the majority. We are moving in the right direction.

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