Battle For Crimea: Expert Names Two Decisive Factors For Ukrainian Armed Forces

The peninsula can be liberated in a short time.

Former British Defense Minister Ben Wallace said that now we can see the beginning of the battle for the temporarily occupied Crimea. What allowed the ex-minister to make such a statement?

The Charter97.org website spoke about this with Ukrainian military expert, head of the Center for Military Legal Research, Oleksandr Musienko.

“This is due to the increase in the intensity of attacks by Ukrainian forces on the Russian military targets in the Crimea. Quite successful operations were carried out: attacks on the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, on a repair plant in Sevastopol, with the destruction of a ship and a submarine.

Overall, we see that the intensity and effectiveness of strikes carried out by Ukrainian forces in the Crimea has increased. This is the first thing.

Secondly, it is very important that we have the support of our partners along this path. Not long ago, the British and French defense ministers visited Kyiv. Before this, by the way, the British King Charles III spoke in the French Parliament, where he said that Britain and France should help Ukraine win.

By the way, I would like to remind you that it was the troops of the English-French coalition that successfully sank the Black Sea Fleet and took Sevastopol during the Crimean War of 1852-1856. This is a very important aspect.

Thirdly, Ukrainian troops are conducting counter-offensive operations in the South. I think that all this together gives grounds for ex-Minister Wallace to make such conclusions and statements.

— You mentioned the recent attack on the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol. In general, how will the defeat of the headquarters affect the coordination of the actions of the occupiers?

— This is a quite serious demoralizing factor. Of course, coordination is also disrupted. The next point is that not only are strikes being carried out on the headquarters, but also, so to speak, the hunt for Russian ships is directly underway.

All this together plays a strategically important role — weakening the potential of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, weakening the possibilities for Russia to exercise any influence in the Black Sea. It's the most important.

It is clear that there will be personnel changes and a new command. Be that as it may, officers will take up positions, command, and perform other functions. It is too early to talk about the complete collapse of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Nevertheless, Ukraine clearly demonstrates that this is precisely its goal — the collapse of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Work in this direction will continue.

— Ukraine is creating the world’s first fleet of maritime drones. Is it possible to talk about the complete displacement of Russian warships from the Black Sea?

— This is a strategic goal and task — to oust Russia from the Black Sea. Sea drones are a very important component for us, because we cannot resist Russia with ships and submarines. Accordingly, we focus on maritime drones.

I think there will be underwater drones plus drones that can strike from the sky. The goal is to inflict maximum losses on the enemy and limit the capabilities of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in the Black Sea.

We see that surface drones have proven themselves well for striking various targets. Plus drones. They all work seriously in coordination with aviation and air forces. Let's remember the attacks of Storm Shadow and SCALP-EG. I can say that we have serious hopes for this.

In general, the situation with the liberation of the Crimea will depend on two factors.

— Which exactly?

— Firstly, on how quickly we can advance in the South and destroy the land corridor. To do this, it is necessary to liberate not only Tokmak, but also Melitopol.

Secondly, how much will the assistance of our partners increase: whether we will receive missiles along with F-16 aircraft and other assistance. Perhaps we will see international legions (British, French and others) that will help us land troops in the Crimea. Then the problem will be solved in a shorter time.

If this does not happen, then the issue of de-occupation of Crimea will come to a more medium-term perspective.

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