Military Expert: Lukashenka May Not Be Bluffing This Time

Did Russia deploy nuclear weapons in Belarus?

The Wall Street Journal showed satellite images of a possible storage facility for Russian nuclear warheads in Belarus. Could Russian nuclear weapons really be placed in Belarus?

Charter97.org spoke about this with the military expert Oleksiy Melnyk, Co-Director for Foreign Relations and International Security Programmes, Coordinator of International Projects at the Razumkov Center, First Assistant to the Minister of Defence of Ukraine (2005-2008):

– Independent sources provided no reliable confirmation of the deployment of these nuclear weapons in Belarus. It’s impossible to hide from reconnaissance the movement of such objects.

Another question is that if they recorded such movements, they did not necessarily voice the information publicly. The very fact of preparing storage facilities cannot but cause concern.

Imitation is a common thing when it comes to military affairs, but a nuclear weapons storage facility is a complex facility. In addition to 2-3 fencing lines, these are also very serious underground engineering structures. That’s a very substantial expenditure.

I don’t think that Lukashenka will accept such budgetary injections in order to mislead someone given the economic problems of Belarus,

– Lukashenka threatens the West with ‘nuclear weapons’ at every opportunity. Is this threat real?

– As of today, all the threats coming from Lukashenka’s are a complete bluff. Firstly, it is doubtful that such weapons still exist in Belarus. Secondly, even if Russian nuclear weapons are deployed on the territory of Belarus, Lukashenka will not be allowed to decide on the use of the weapons.

It’s not because the Kremlin follows international nonproliferation rules closely, no one will give Lukashenka such a right simply. This is rather a matter of personal relations.

To be very, very hypothetical, if Putin, God forbid, decides to take such a step as using tactical weapons, then Lukashenka can play his role. This could be done by him or presented as if Lukashenka did it. In this case, it is clear that this is already a small nuclear war.

In general, you and I can further develop this conspiracy theory. At other times, under other leaders of Russia, one could say with confidence that this is impossible. But experience has taught us that in the case of Russia, the most absurd decisions cannot be ruled out. Even counterproductive for Russia. The “collective Putin” did enough so that we can draw such conclusions.