Andrei Sannikov: Milosevic's Example Must Stare Lukashenka And Putin In Their Faces

It’s necessary to put the insane dictators in their places.

What’s going on in Belarus? Are there really nuclear missiles there or is it the bluff of the dictators? Why does Lukashenka need the Wagner Group? What sanctions will help strangle the regime and what will lead the Belarusians to victory? Why should Belarus become a NATO member state? Leader of the European Belarus Civil Campaign Andrei Sannikov answered these and other questions in the Studio X97 show by Charter97.org. Host: Yevhen Klimakin.

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– Dear Andrei, I would like to start our program with the nuclear topic. There is a lot of speculation and a lot of information from online sources about whether there are Russian nuclear missiles on the territory of Belarus or not. What do you know and what risks does this situation pose?

– The situation is extremely dangerous. I cannot say whether there are nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus. Because, firstly, we can trust neither Putin nor Lukashenka. They lie about everything. Also, Lukashenka’s statements that they would restore everything in a month, that there were some... He won’t restore anything. This is a very complex facility for storing nuclear warheads, and this Belarusian facility has long fallen into disrepair. So it was a bluff.

Putin said that they started the transfer of nuclear weapons but this fact has also been confirmed yet. So, I see that there is a game going on on the nerves of the public. I think the experts know, but for some reason, neither US intelligence nor NATO intelligence reports whether it is there or not. There were some leaks, but not yet confirmed.

However, the situation is dangerous. Since the decision has already been made, since it has already been announced to the whole world that these weapons will be located on the territory of Belarus, then measures must be taken. It’s really necessary to take action.

– What?

– Any measures. It is necessary to warn what will be done if these weapons are deployed. Because today NATO is behaving strangely. They say: “We do not see any particular danger and are monitoring the situation.” This attitude of the West means that they do not understand the mindset of the dictators at all, these petty, cowardly, sick people. Because when the West says “Nothing dangerous,” the dictators think: “Yeah, that means we can keep going, that means we can go further, we can really do something so that they will finally feel the danger.” This is how both Putin and Lukashenka perceive it.

Therefore, we must say: “We will strike at the location of Russian troops.” They have the right. It’s true because Russia is an aggressor and is waging war now. I can note that very recently there were military manoeuvres in the Baltic countries that were publicly announced as Article 5 testing manoeuvres. What is Article Five of the NATO Treaty? This means that if one country faces...

– Collective defense.

– Collective defense. In general, this is a signal. This was a good signal. But they must tell what they will do next. Because there are no tactical nuclear weapons. The use of nuclear weapons of any, even the shortest range, means strategic nuclear weapons. Because the entire war strategy will be changed. This fire could really spread throughout the world. Therefore, this must be taken seriously.

– That is, Do you mean that NATO, in your opinion, the Alliance, should say if this happens? The consequences are this and that.

– Correct. Let's go back to an example that for some reason people don't really like to remember. Although, I think this is a good example. The bombing of Yugoslavia during the genocide. Milosevic was warned many times. He got into trouble. He rushed and got it. I communicated a lot and closely with the Serbian opposition, which overthrew Milosevic. I can't say that they did not object, but they did not speak negatively about the fact that President Clinton and NATO made such a decision. These are examples that must stare Lukashenka And Putin in their faces. To make it clear to them.

Guys, are u really ready to compete? Your Kuzya aircraft carriers or cardboard rifles and also the “people's militia”, Lukashenka is just disgracing himself with it today? It seems to me that there should be serious warnings. Because there is a war going on. We do not live in peacetime. We forget all the time and try to reason that some kind of right is in effect. No! The law applies, but it is wartime law.

– This is today and now. They are killing, torturing and raping people, and right now they are forcibly taking children to Russia.

– That's right!. Yes.

– You understand the nature of dictators Lukashenka and Putin. In your opinion, Is it possible that they will use nuclear weapons in a critical situation?

– I don’t know how many drugs they are taking. Of course, they can do it when on drugs. Because they are really sick people. Their sick, inflamed brains, especially troubled today. They are also driven into a corner in addition to being sick. That is why there must be clear warnings, within the framework of international law.

Lukashenka is Putin’s puppet. He will never have control over nuclear weapons even if he wants. Even Putin does not assume this. However, there are still different groups in Russia. Whatever one may say, there is no single dictator there, as in Belarus. These are different groups and they don’t need this nuclear war at all, even a limited one.

The Soviet Union considered the possibility of waging a limited nuclear war. How did it end? Because there is a very clear justification for nuclear winter, which will come after a nuclear war, even a limited one. So, there are Russian oligarchs with big money, there are power-hungry clans, there are military, and there are Patrushev’s special forces. They don’t really want, as Putin said, “to go to heaven”. Even going to heaven with such developments. Therefore, these influence groups will convey it to the Kremlin perfectly well in case of clear warning.

– One more important topic is Lukashenka’s ban on issuing identity documents to Belarusians who are abroad. So, what should we do?

– He has no right to do this.

– What does he have the right to? He is not the president, but still.

– Here we simply need to contact our partners, primarily Western states, and ask them to take action. What measures can be taken is also quite predictable and clear. I am talking with politicians, with diplomats, with lawyers on this topic today.

Firstly, if you want this practice to stop, then act harshly towards those institutions that will carry out this practice. Get the embassies out to hell. Nobody needs them today. They do not perform any function. They represent a dictatorship today. They are engaged in espionage. They are engaged in intelligence activities. They are engaged in industrial spying. They are bribing politicians and businessmen in Europe in order to work for the Lukashenka regime. Why is this necessary?

It is necessary to set clear conditions. They do not comply with the terms of international agreements, such as the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations (1961). The EU has all the levers to make necessary responses. All the possible levers. Put such an ultimatum - and then we'll see.

Also it’s worth deprive Lukashenka’s companies that operate here of their licenses. They do not issue any supporting documents to citizens of Belarus, so why should we put up with their companies that make money with this dictatorship? Kick them out, deprive them of their licenses, and do not provide Lukashenka’s lackeys with any further documents. There are plenty of other companies here in Europe.

– But what should ordinary people do in a situation when the diplomatic missions do not want to issue documents for them?

-What does a simple person mean? This is a citizen of Belarus living abroad. Right? Abroad, in the European Union, laws apply. According to this law, he must receive some kind of document that allows him to live here. If his passport is running out, he can get a foreigner’s id or get a travel document, that is, a document for travel, and so on. There are a lot of options. But what would I advise? Please contact me, I have had many conversations on this topic and I know the working schemes and patterns people are using now.

I’m telling politicians: make an appeal to the president of the country, the head of parliament, the minister of foreign affairs, the minister of internal affairs, the Council of Europe, the European Commission. Text as follows: we ask you to urgently consider these and that issues. We are asking you to consider Belarusian passport passports as valid upon expiration due to the adoption of an illegal decree by the dictator, Put a stamp, whatever. Before the expiration, the person may come and do it. Further. We ask you to legalize the documents they have at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and at the relevant institutions of their places of residence. Further. We ask you to issue visas for 2-3 years so that Belarussians can legally stay in foreign countries. It's very solvable. Just don’t believe scammers who offer fake passports.

– Do you consider the proposal and idea of passports for the “new Belarus” real?

– That's totally unrealistic. You know, there was such a famous movie in Soviet times, “Wedding in Malinovka”. There Popandopulo drew fake money. And he said: “Take everything, I’ll draw more for myself.” You know, the same deal.

That’s fraud, there will be no real passport in the full meaning of the word. That’s just to appease vanity – signing a piece of paper that no one needs. I don't even want to talk about it because that’s a scam. People who believe will then be deceived and will have to bitterly regret that they somehow believed in this completely unnecessary idea.

This is a misinformation to distract attention from the complete defeat of these impostors. Besides, it's harmful. I believe that this is nothing but a betrayal. Because whatever the time, we have a state. Yes, it’s living under a dictatorship, but refusing a Belarusian passport means recognizing Lukashenka.

– I also would like to talk to you about the Wagnerites. Some of them went to Africa after the well-known events with Prigozhin. Someone came back to Russia, signed contracts and then continued to kill Ukrainians, but still, I think, thousands stayed in Belarus. Why does Lukashenka need them?

– Not Lukashenka but Putin needs them. Lukashenka is a greedy coward. He will not give money to them and will still be afraid that they might be ordered to do something. They will not obey Lukashenka anyway. Putin keeps a certain number of these troops in order to put pressure on Ukrainians. That’s his ordinary tactic. Tension must remain on the border of Belarus and Ukraine. In order to distract the Ukrainians forces, to make them monitor the border situation. So, that’s a source of distraction for the forces. Although, it’s not very significant but it exists.

– Any sabotage in the European Union?

– Yes, maybe. Because we know that two propagandists were caught not long ago in Poland. Well, not real propagandists, they were supposedly handed out leaflets, acting like recruiters. But, I think, there is operational espionage, including the territory of Poland.

But in fact, I want to draw your attention to the fact that this degenerate Kiir, the so-called President of South Sudan, who wet himself at the inauguration, came to see Putin. What for? I think there was the only goal of having some PMCs deployed in South Sudan so that Putin can help him to maintain power. I think this is the goal, these PMCs. However, do they really need them as troops in the war against Ukraine? Prigozhin showed that they may rebel. But they are needed in Africa and in Asia, in Africa especially.

I think that's the strategy. Well, he will keep some group. But we need to monitor the situation. I believe that we must treat this, as I have already said, as a legitimate goal for the Ukrainian forces on the territory of Belarus, co-aggressors.

– EU sanctions against Belarus, against the Lukashenka regime. Sufficient or insufficient?

– Insufficient. There were no sanctions for a year. Some have been introduced now. Half of the “wallets” are still not subject to sanctions, even the “wallets”. There is an incomprehensible fuss with the transit of grain through the territory of Belarus. Still, this scheme pops up from time to time. Incomprehensible lobbying for the purchase of potassium from Lukashenka. Trade turnover with the European Union is growing, Poland and Lithuania are among the leading countries in terms of exports and imports.

That is, the sanctions (for now they are declared as a qualitatively new level, because they have begun to introduce sectoral sanctions) have practically not yet started working. They work, but could work at full capacity. Returning to Lukashenka’s criminal decree, which hits citizens abroad. Here, tighten the sanctions and say: let’s return to normal consular practice and then we can revise the sanctions.

– How do you like the idea of completely blocking trade between the EU, the West, and Belarus?

– I think it would work right away. I have a very clear position. Any sanctions are morally justified as long as there are political prisoners. Sanctions should be linked to political prisoners. Release all political prisoners and we will lift the sanctions. I'll be the first to say: lift it. Despite my tough position concerning sanctions. Everyone! Especially Andrzej Poczobut, my friend, they are really killing him in prison. So what, nothing can be done? It can! Still, the state must save every person, every individual. And there are thousands of them today in Belarus.

– The situation on the Polish-Belarusian border. This has been going on for more than a year now. Many call this a hybrid war. How to stop it? These unfortunate migrants who are wandering there and dying. They are crossing the border, hiding and then they are transferred back and forth.

– We know who is guilty and who is the organizer. This is organized by Lukashenka. Look, the other day there was another attack on the border, a massive on. They do not make such huge incursions usually but there was a massive one recently. When did it happen? After that Lukashenka went to see Putin. I see a direct connection here. Putin told him: “Something has weakened there. Come on, you. You are to keep tension with Poles all the time.” That's why it's not about migrants so much. The migrants are poor, ofcourse, but those who organize all this must be held accountable.

As for Poland, I know, one group was disclosed. Belarusian forces will never disclose it. But there are people who work in these countries. Whatever governments there are, there are embassies of Western countries, European countries, and the United States. And this chain is not so difficult to track. And I am sure that citizens of democratic states can also be involved.

– Do you think this is a bigger story?

– I think this is a really big story, and I think that the numbers are really huge. Because, you see, a crisis broke out again, Italy was again subject to an invasion of migrants. This is repeated all the time and all the time there is someone who will use these crises to create tension on the border with Ukraine. After all, Poland, which helps Ukraine the most, suffers because of this and because they need to maintain tension on this border and show: “We can hit Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia.”

– We used the wording “hybrid war.” A lot has happened recently: there were missile attacks from the territory of Belarus against the territory of Poland, they launched a missile, and there were helicopters also. Is this a pretext, in your opinion, for using that very fifth article of the NATO Treaty that we’ve mentioned?

– Not yet. Because there was no attack on a NATO member state. Nevertheless, the territory of Belarus is already full of legitimate targets for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. There were Wagnerites and they’re still there, there are positions of Russian troops and airfields, all training grounds are used for Russian troops, and all military airfields are used for them. So, there are no grounds for applying the fifth article yet, but there could be a response under the fifth article in case of any inappropriate actions, if they cross the border at the border, sorry for the typo.

– You’ve said several times that Belarus is Europe and its future is to become a member of the European Union. Do you think Belarus should join NATO?

– Definitely. Moreover, I will say that security in Europe will not be ensured without Belarus. Ukraine will not solve Europe's security issues. Because this is a balcony, look at the map and you will see a beautiful balcony, as if specially created for the Russian imperialists, to attack Europe, primarily Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. If this balcony does not become an independent Belarus without dictators, then there will be no security in Europe.

Therefore, I’m saying all the time together with my Ukrainian friends and partners that Ukraine must have security guarantees. Totally true. But include Belarus there. The theory about buffer zones and that it is possible to somehow work with the gray zones collapsed with Russia’s attack on Ukraine in a situation where there were no guarantees on this side and being in a risk zone.

As the famous politician and diplomat Kurt Volker, who was once the representative of the US President to Ukraine, said: “The gray zone is a green light!” That is, this is an invitation to aggression. Therefore, such gray zones should be eliminated. When Europe straightens its borders, it will ensure security. In general, only NATO ensures security in Europe.

The European Union was trying to create some forces of its own, something was happening there. Probably, coordination between the European armies, that is, the armed forces of the European countries, has increased but this is not a combat-ready army like NATO has. I see the perfect work of NATO today, despite the difficulties that have arisen and those that have existed.

Why are they leaving Stoltenberg for a third term? It's because he is a world leader who perfectly manages the huge machine of the military and political organization called NATO and he is a captain and navigator at the same time. If NATO had made a mistake, if they had started arguing about what was possible and what was not, and did not start helping Ukraine, not right away, we admit, but they did, then Ukraine would not exist today. Let’s be honest. Therefore, NATO is ensuring EU security even along the borders.

– NATO membership idea for Belarus. Will the idea find support among Belarusians?

– I have followed this line since the early 2000s. And our European Belarus Civil Campaign stands on these positions. Sooner or later we will have to make this choice. We cannot choose to be neutral. I don’t really like the political arguments like “We should keep neutral.”

Folks, take a pencil and calculate how much it will cost. The richest Sweden is now joining NATO. Why? They spent huge amounts of money on defence in order to ensure their neutrality. They will now spend less than the assigned 2% because they spent significantly more on their defence before. So, talking about neutrality and about the fact that we can somehow manage it with some kind of agreements... Firstly, agreements with Russia are impossible. What can we say about some kinds of trade and economic issues? Russia withdrew from those very nuclear agreements that we talked about. The danger to the whole world increased immediately when they withdrew. They’ve already undermined international peace and security. Therefore, that is out of the question.

Keep balancing between Russia and Europe? Well, that's all, this is the end of the state.

– How to cleanse Belarus from Russian influence? It remains staggeringly pervasive.

– Well, not so much. I think that it is on top, but it did not take its roots, and therefore a very simple answer is to strengthen Belarusian influence. Again, this is not some theoretical reasoning. So I look at what is happening in Ukraine, what I see and have seen before. When I met young people outside of Ukraine who spoke Ukrainian to each other, well, my heart rejoiced. 20 years old, it was a couple of young, beautiful people who were in love, sure. This was back in the early 2000s.

And we had it. Before Lukashenka came to power, Belarusian culture, really Belarusian culture, was developing by leaps and bounds. And television is the most important thing. We had great TV shows in Belarusian. Everyone was watching them with pleasure, and they were not inferior in ratings to those from Moscow. Therefore, everything is there, and I will tell you that the culture has grown very noticeably during this time. It is precisely because people are looking, firstly, for new ways to express their attitude towards this crazy stuff that is going on in Belarus. And secondly, they are looking for an opportunity to express their attitude as clearly as possible. Of course, now, mostly, this can be done abroad. But this is the Belarusian language, it won't disappear anywhere. And now it has spread largely. 2020 has spread Belarus all over the world. Belarus will get together.

– The last question. How to win?

– There will be a repeat of 2020. I want to believe in this exact scenario. Because all the other alleged political scientists prefer to discuss some kind of palace coup or some other coup. But this is not a solution, this is not a way out. I think that the protest potential has been driven into prisons today, but this regime has fewer and fewer resources. Now, Belarus and Belarusians are facing the most difficult moment in its history, for the individual, for the culture, for the language. This, you know, like you dive and it's not so deep, and you already have the opportunity to push off from the bottom and you can see where you can push off. I think this will happen soon.

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