Israeli Military Expert: Taking Gaza Is Realistic Scenario

The IDF face a major challenge.

Israel's Security Council has unanimously approved a ground operation in Gaza.

What will the IDF face? Israeli military expert David Sharp spoke to Charter97.org about possible scenarios for this operation:

- First of all, I'll go through a little bit of what the enemy is like. The Gaza Strip is about 360 square kilometres, most of it built-up. Most of it is extremely dense, including completely irregular, which is very different from urban standards in any country in Europe.

Hamas has some 40,000 men in military formations, including the well-trained special forces that were at the forefront of the latest terrorist attack. Its main ally and collaborator, Islamic Jihad, has 10,000 men. There are a number of other smaller organisations, but their forces are dwarfed by those I have mentioned.

These two main organisations are armed with all kinds of small arms, automatic rifles, machine guns, grenades and, of course, sniper rifles, including large calibre rifles. There are grenade launchers of all kinds, including those with tandem ammunition to penetrate more modern armour. There are anti-tank guided missile systems, including Russian Kornets, the most advanced systems of Eastern origin. They have MANPADS and large quantities of mortars of all calibres, from small to 120 millimetre. Of course, there is an extensive rocket arsenal. As for the rocket arsenal, it's more for hitting the Israeli rear, not for direct combat in built-up areas and residential areas.

They have also been preparing for defence for years, there are many kilometres of underground tunnels and bunkers under Gaza. This makes it possible to manoeuvre, move and get behind enemy lines covertly from Israeli surveillance equipment, which is literally the most advanced in the world today.

For example, if Israeli soldiers have advanced far enough, such a tunnel allows you to get behind them. You can blow up those on the ground above the tunnel, you can set booby traps, and mined buildings, tunnels and entire streets are one of Hamas's trump cards. And all this with two million civilians living there.

The Israeli military has a huge task ahead of it, especially as Israel has to fight in accordance with international norms. And that means some restrictions, i.e. everything possible must be done to evacuate the local population in order to act more freely.

What are the possible scenarios? The main thing is to set an appropriate objective.

If the aim is (as I understand it and am almost certain) to destroy the military infrastructure and the military formations of the terrorist organisations, then this implies a full-scale ground operation with temporary control of the sector. With all the consequences that entails, overcoming the very defences that I have been talking about.

We have to assume the worst case scenario, that the Israeli army will, in most cases, face stiff resistance, in some cases even suicide attacks. This is the standard situation, it will certainly not be easy. It will be hard, it will be painful, but there is no other way out.

- How realistic is it for Israel to take full control of Gaza?

- It is not only realistic, it is quite achievable. The question is whether such a task will be set and whether it will not be abandoned for one reason or another, as they say, along the way. There may be military considerations, for example, if war breaks out in the north of Israel. That is, if the Lebanese organisation Hezbollah opens a second front, it will be the priority in all respects for both air and ground forces. Then the possibility of a two-pronged offensive could be on the agenda. I will not go into this, it would be wrong of me to discuss whether this is possible and how it could be done, but theoretically the priorities could change.

This does not mean, however, that the same priorities cannot be pursued later. If the goal is clearly to completely destroy Hamas's military capabilities, there is no other way but to take full control of the sector. Air power cannot suppress rocket fire, it can only reduce it.

- The US has sent a carrier strike group to the eastern Mediterranean. Who is this signal aimed at?

- It is a signal to the whole Iranian axis, which includes Iran, Syria, the pro-Iranian organisation Hezbollah, small Palestinian terrorist organisations in southern Lebanon and various pro-Iranian militias in Iraq that may also participate. This axis even includes the Yemeni Houthis, who are a pro-Iranian force and have declared their willingness to join the conflict. They have assets that can reach Israel, such as the notorious Shahed-136. It has more than enough range to reach Israel from Yemen, and perhaps even the missiles Iran has supplied it with.

US President Joseph Biden's speech is ambiguous, directed primarily at Iran. First of all, these are hints, transparent and practical, I would say.

The solidarity and support that the Americans have expressed for Israel is intended to make other external actors think twice and thrice about whether they should intervene and whether they should test the strength of, let's say, American threats and American hints.

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