Economist Says I Know the End of Lukashenka's Offshore

The country is run by people with a district mentality.

Leader of the Strategy analytical centre, economist Leanid Zaika told in the interview with Charter97.org.

- The Belarusian authorities say economic theory is boring, it is detached from practice and nobody needs it. Why has Lukashenka learned nothing after 25 years in power and keeps using such principles?

- You see, in Turkmenistan, for example, the president is a former dentist. And he immediately abolished all taxes for dentists. That is, they still have some kind of "corporate solidarity".

Listening to Lukashenka's speeches, I say to myself that it's a good that he was not a gynecologist or a proctologist.

If seriously, people of the district level came to power in Belarus 25 years ago. And their initial position gave rise to a correlation of consciousness and point of view.

That is, our economy is marked by the profession of ruler. That's why there is a complete collapse with the economic theory in Belarus. To "manage" the economy without knowing its theory is like building a nuclear reactor without knowing physics.

There is not a single person with a degree in "economic theory" in the government of Belarus. And there can't be!

- But how can we talk about tasks to create a "stable economy" without knowing the basics of this system?

- You know, there was such a Russian economist Nikolai Turgenev in the 19th century. He had a wonderful saying: "Woe to the country whose head does not know the political economy". It belonged to the imperial Russia, but it is acute now.

Let's take "import substitution" for example. People who do not know the economic theory will say that this is a positive phenomenon. But this is stupid. If the country is small, investing a million dollars in export or import substitution is absolutely incomparable expense. Billions of dollars are spent on the creation of one import-substituting medicine in Belarus.

Lukashenka believes that if he appoints ministers, they should be close to the people. I believe that both the Prime Minister and the key ministers should be people with quite serious economic education. I am even against bankers to be heads of the National Bank. They should be specialists in the economic theory.

A specialist in macroeconomics should be the Prime Minister. He does not need to know how potatoes are picked at a collective farm. As soon as he starts to deal with manure, he will start to degrade professionally. It is the reason to commit suicide.

When the centipede was asked which leg it started walking from, it pondered and fell down. The higher the level of decision-making is, the more theoretical skills are needed. Aliaksandr Ryhoravich, alas, is not able to transform into an economist.

- But why do the Belarusian authorities still have such disregard for the economic theory?

- That's understandable. First of all, it's unknown field. And everything that is unknown is intimidating.

Second, an economist can always say that something is wrong.

In 2018 I warned that the authorities' policy would lead to depreciation of the Belarusian currency and devaluation. As a result, we have the devaluation of 7%, which may increase.

And the government was silent then, because it had the task of Lukashenka - salaries of $500 at any cost. It's just a crap. They don't work, they just grovel, as well as Lukashenka used to in his youth. He himself told how he was bullied earlier.

Our people in power consider the economy to be the Komarovski market, a banal profiteer scheme.

Americans initiated a group of economic advisors to the president right after World War II, after 1947. The U.S. Congress and Senate obliged the U.S. president to have a group of economists. In Belarus a milk yield specialist is the director of the Institute of Economics. U.S. presidents consult with professors of economics on the most critical issues, while Lukashenka believes he is the smartest. Of course, look how brilliant he is in hockey, music, potatoes and watermelons.

I am not even going to criticize such ridiculous decisions of the authorities as the creation of the "Orsha Offshore". I've been watching all this for 25 years now and I know how it ends.

The problem of the Belarusian nomenclature is that they are not able to publicly explain what they do. Any educated economist can say to them: "When you raise tariffs for housing and communal services, you don't really think you're solving problems of the Belarusian economy. You guys, first of all, are lying: all subsidies for housing and communal services come from taxes of the population. The population gave you this money in the form of taxes. Now you say there are not enough taxes, let people give us more money, because the state subsidizes it. Guys, stop lying.

It's a blatant lie. They take money out of taxes and then say that some "state" subsidizes.

The economy in Belarus is being replaced by Lukashenka's directives. There is an imitation of violent economic activity. Lukashenka's problem is in the use of "pluperfect tense". He is afraid to admit it.