Jauhen Afnahel: Lukashenka Has No One to Rely On

How to change the power.

Coordinator of European Belarus, one of the leaders of the Belarusian National Congress (BNC) Jauhen Afnagel told that in the interview to Charter97.org.

- At the meeting of the BNC Council on Thursday, you supported Statkevich as a presidential candidate in Belarus. Why?

- Elections aren't the thing that matters. Willingness of people, opposition and its leaders to protect results of the elections, to achieve tasks and a true victory over the dictatorship is crucial.

Mikalai Statkevich is a strong, brave, honest and responsible politician, who has led protests and achieved set goals. The dictator is afraid of him, people trust him. Mikalai Statkevich is ready to fight; he believes in victory and his inner circle believes in his victory - both members of the People's Hramada Party and other organizations of the BNC.

At the meeting of the BNC Rada I told about sentiments of ordinary people not related to the opposition. They hate Lukashenka, but they seek an alternative. Belarusians, due to traditions, way of thinking, pay attention to personification of those who strive for changes in Belarus. "Who can beat Lukashenka?" is one of the most common questions. Our compatriots need to see an example of personal courage. And Mikalai Statkevich has repeatedly demonstrated it.

- What are current sentiments of people? What do they talk about at meetings with you, your colleagues? Whom do they support?

- In fact, the major part of the population knows the anwer. It's not only challenging to find a person who believes Lukashenka is popular, but even thinks this question is pertinent.

Most people hate the dictator and his entourage. They want to change the status quo. Of course, not all of them are ready to protest right now. But the question of Lukashenka's reliability hasn't been raised for a long time. Marches of Angry Belarusians of 2017 and current statements of people demonstrate it.

There is no objective sociology in Belarus now, but in conditions of dictatorship "jungle telegraph" works great. The elderly generation remembers the situation of the late Soviet Union, the overwhelming majority of the country's population laughed at the elderly archaic politicians who were trying to pretend they still controlled the situation.

We know where this resulted in: this is how Perestroika began and the collapse of the Soviet Union. While propagandists on central television said that "the country is developing", most people did not believe them and learned the truth in kitchens, near entrances, in factory "locker rooms". The same thing is happening now.

Since the BNC establishment we have been monitoring people's sentiments, as it is very significant for us to involve not members of opposition parties in political life. We see the real picture in small settlements, but also in cities and towns, and in regional centers, where the real salary is 150 - 200 rubles, or 300 rubles.

We know the situation in Eastern Belarus, where 70% of regions are depressed areas with people leaving for Russia and even Ukraine. We know how residents of Brest and Hrodna try to survive after restrictions at the border. We know how much employees of Minsk plants earn.

The BNC Rada includes representatives of all regional centers and large cities. More than 80% of Belarusians hate Lukashenka. This confidence is based on talks to people.

- You say that Mikalai Statkevich and his team intend to win. How can the dictatorship be beaten in Belarus?

- It will be a hard way. Despite the fact that the situation fosters changes, we will all have to make a lot of efforts to seize this moment, defeat the dictatorship and gain independence for the country.

We are already creating an initiative group of presidential candidate Mikalai Statkevich. We will address our old friends - those who were with us in 2010 and 2006 - to support us in the struggle. We will address those who joined protests in 2017. The major task is to get new people involved.

Everyone knows that there are no fair elections in the country, no one will really count votes. The victory needs defence on the streets and squares.

Lukashenka is not only afraid of his own people, but also of real leaders. Therefore, the regime tries to neutralize those who have real support from people: Mikalai Statkevich, Pavel Seviarynets and Henadz Fiadynich.

For this purpose new criminal cases are being trumped up, and political prisoners - heroes of the Square of 2010 - are being denied rehabilitation because of this.

The first task is to restore the right to vote for our leaders. After that, we will have to win the elections and defend our choice.

- And what is a weak point of your opponent?

- Lukashenka has repeatedly mentioned the layer of the population he relies on. At different times pensioners, trade unions, women, and sometimes young people played this role. The dictator named various social groups.

Please notice that he hasn't said that in the last couple of years just because he knows that he has lost the real support of almost all social groups.

He is supported only by his circle (but only because of fear), resident oligarchs and a small part of security forces, the regime is based on. There is a unique situation in Belarus: Lukashenka has no social group to rely on. It's the end for every politician. Figuratively speaking, the dictator and his inner circle hide in the besieged fortress and almost all people counter them.

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