29 March 2024, Friday, 9:05
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Leanid Zaika: Belarusians Need To Withdraw Dollars From Banks

Leanid Zaika: Belarusians Need To Withdraw Dollars From Banks

Savings of citizens may be zeroed.

Last week Russian bankers addressed their specific plan on de-dollarization to Vladimir Putin. Russian ВТБ Bank prepared a number of proposals which can decrease the share of American currency in trade and international settlements. "Separation from dollar is required and it can result in the increase of the economic sovereignty of Russia," the Russian ruler stated.

How will the de-dollarization of international installment policy of Russia influence Belarus and its citizens given an excessive "involvement" of our country in economic ties with the eastern neighbor?

These questions of Charter97.org were addressed to head of the Strategy analytical center, economist Leanid Zaika:

- Something wrong is happening in Russia. Bankers addressed Putin to refuse dollar! There are no bankers among them, but only 20-30 fools. They are not bankers.

They are idiots I have never met before. GDP of Russia is only 1.5% of the world's one. Dollar is the international reserve currency.

There was Victor Mikhailovich Gerashchenko, the head of the Central Bank of Russia. At a meeting with Belarusian colleagues one offered to refuse the dollar and he said: "Idiots!". I express him my respect.

Russian bankers miss two things: to remove two zeroes in their money and introduce the "gold standard". That's it. Or it's even better to fire all bankers. I would say that the best Russian bankers must be jailed.

And if they offer to refuse the dollar, they should listen to lectures from the very beginning.

- How much is it possible that the Kremlin will take a political decision on de-dollarization of the economy?

- The process is already on. I have recently returned from Russia. They already have a strict control there: if you exchange more than $400, you're directly chalked up. Your passport data is recorded. . Russia makes the dollar out.

It's indicative that Belarus does the same following Russia in footsteps. .

About three months ago Belarus sharply decreased currency deposit rate. Now it equals to 1-1.5%.

Let's imagine: Lukashenka has saved a half of his salary and wants to open a currency deposit in a Belarusian bank. His money will earn him only 1.5%. Let's just imagine that a foreigner is in his place, and Belarus keeps borrowing money from foreigners. And if this foreigner buys Belarusian bonds, he is given 6%. I wonder then "What idiots have you taught to do so? If your son receives the income of 1.5% and the foreigner raises 6%, where is the logic?

I know that this picture is nominal, because it's useless to reach out to the violation of interests of an ordinary Belarusian. Strictly speaking, head of the KGB Vakulchyk should be interested in this situation. After all, it's the betrayal of national interests.

Guys, what were you thinking about when you dropped the interest rate on currency deposits? The currency of their country will outflow rapidly. They hoped that people would convert currency in rubles, but, alas.

Our economy is barely open and should be based on foreign currency. Instead of it, we have the de-dollarization process. There are faithful adherents to Nabibulina and they follow recipes of Russia.

- What are consequences that the near future brings? How may it influence the Belarusian ruble exchange rate?

- The main consequence is the dislocation of balance in earning capacity of various units of currency. The earning capacity of euro, dollar, and ruble differs. The structure of the currency bucket will change.

The second moment is that there will be no accumulation of currency.

For example, it's more profitable for Belarusians to withdraw their money from accounts and buy an apartment of $15 thousand in the Baltic states. It's not possible to do in Minsk. The country will turn into the one with grandmothers who wait on pensions, but Belarusians have almost no savings. Savings will be "zeroed". There will be the outflow of real money. It's already happening.

- How will it influence the purchasing power of citizens? For example, in two years after "denomination" real prices have significantly increased. What will happen after "de-dollarization"?

- I don't think that the denomination only caused the price growth. In my opinion, it's just personal judgements tied to high inflation expectations of the population.

The "denomination" itself, I think, was needed. The National Bank has finally started to pursue wiser and stricter monetary policy.

The "denomination" caused the comparable price level.

- But did the same happen to salaries?

- It's a different task bankers should deal with. What is the greatest point of idiocy on Belarus? When the National Bank cares about the profitability of enterprises. When the authorities start thinking about employment. No way, guys.

The National Bank just produces "bullets" and "missiles". And only the government, corporative sector make decision about their distribution.

The Belarusian mistake is a typical Soviet one. It likely originates from Brezhnev or Khrushchev times. Khrushchev was illiterate, as well as Brezhnev. The National Bank should not be responsible for earnings. It has issued "bullets", and its mission is accomplished.

The thing I'm going to say may sound like a call for revolution, but business-class is responsible for earnings. They are employers and owners of the capital.

- Can the owners of the capital be responsible for the income of employees, if the principle "it was your, now it's ours" works in Belarus? Just remember the recent nationalization of the Orsha aircraft repair plant...

- It is clear that the government should defend interest of a private owner in a normal state. Our government is just chewing a gum, because Lukashenka has "backpedaled" the privatization. But it is what it is.

In this specific case I mean a real business. The case of Motor Sich is a completely different story. People who have nothing in common with business were engaged. Why did the deputy of Verkhovna Rada - owner of $15 million - turn to Belarus? He had ties with Peftiyev and decided it would let him reach Lukashenka and do business.

He thought he would get the enterprise of a defence complex, which produced helicopters; and Russians would just look through their fingers. Is this business? I do not dare to say that. It's a conventional tactics, when someone believes that it's possible to make money on serving friends of Lukashenka.

One should have come up with an idea that one day the issue will take a political resolution. That the Russian FSB will not drink tea and smile. The Orsha plant is a military enterprise. Like Ukraine and Russia are now carrying out joint beauty contests, and the Kremlin does not order to Lukashenka... It's not a business; it's a political and military decision.

I believe that business should be divided from the policy once and for all. And everything will fall into places, including the salary issue. No shoulder straps are allowed in business, including these of officials. Every person with shoulder straps or deputy's certificate is an ordinary bribe taker, not a businessman.

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