Dzmitry Bandarenka: 2018 Was Pre-Revolutionary Year

The economic gun is pointing at the heads of losers Putin ad Lukashenka.

Coordinator of the European Belarus civil campaign Dzmitry Bandarenka said this, commenting the results of the year 2018 for the website Charter97.org:

- What events in the world, in your opinion, were the most significant and influenced the situation in Belarus objectively?

- If we characterize events in general, then we can say that 2018 was the struggle of the old and the new at all levels - in the world, in our region, and in our country.

In my opinion, this is because a technological revolution is taking place in the world. And it always happens that technological progress greatly influences political processes.

Therefore, in the first place, I would single out such events as the continuation of the shale revolution in the United States. Since the totalitarian and authoritarian regimes in the world are largely connected with high oil and gas sales, the technological revolution in hydrocarbon production in the United States affects the economy and politics of the whole world.

We see that an unexpected increase in shale oil and gas production in America led to a huge drop in prices for “black gold” at the end of the year. Journalists somehow missed the fact that when oil was still at $ 80 a barrel, in some parts of Canada it already was $ 20. The inability to transport it due to the lack of pipelines has affected the fact that during self-delivery this oil fell in price to $ 20 per barrel. This suggests that the profitability of oil production has decreased dramatically and this will be a very strong factor in influencing the world economy and politics.

We also see the continuation of the technological revolution in modern areas. A manifestation of this was Elon Musk's achievements, both in the automotive industry and in space. At the end of the year, we already know that Richard Branson launched his space tourism project. This will mean that there will be thousands of new communication satellites, and the idea of Musk on the distribution of the Internet for the entire population of the Earth will be implemented.

These events will affect the whole world. It turns out that technology is moving forward, and the political forms and actions of politicians remain archaic.

At the same time, as many believe, we are in the phase of changing the world hegemon. Let me remind you that the USA became such a hegemon in 1945, and the centenary cycle will end in 2045, and the last phase of the cycle is a period of hegemonic wars.

And we see a manifestation of the conflict between the United States and China: trade wars that have already influenced the development of the world economy.

We should also recall the events in the Middle East. As is known, the predicted Armageddon, the worldwide battle of good and evil, should happen there. The events in Syria and in the Middle East as a whole suggest that we should always monitor this region. Because there have already been direct clashes between the US forces and the Russian mercenaries.

This tangle - the influence of Iran, the contradictions of Iran and Saudi Arabia, the desire of Iran and the forces obedient to it to destroy Israel - is very important for the development of the whole world.

I also want to note the regional factor, which is important for Belarus. This is the century of independence gained by a number of states in Central and Eastern Europe. Once it became an echo of the global conflict, the First World War and the collapse of several empires.

The factor of a centenary of independence has shown the importance of our region for the European and world development. The fact that our neighbor Poland is trying in some way, if not to unite, then at least to coordinate the policies and economic strategic projects of the countries of the Intermarium, or ABC countries, speaks of the importance of our region.

By the way, the economy of the Visegrad countries is more important for Germany in terms of exports than France. That is, the four countries of New Europe are in fact strong and can influence European politics. These trends in the interaction of the countries of the Intermarium region, I would note as one of the important factors.

- What Belarusian event would you like to single out as the most impoirtant and significant in the outgoing year?

- Belarus as a small country depends on world and regional trends of development of the economy and politics.

And here for our country one can clearly see the discrepancy between the backward political forms and the world technological breakthrough. This explains everything that happens to us.

We observe the backwardness of Belarus both in the economic sphere, and in the technology sphere, and, most importantly, in the political sphere. Our country throughout its centuries-old history has known much more free forms of government than those that exist now.

Russia is in this phase of technological lag, but in Belarus, as in a more European country, these contradictions are already implicitly suited to the explosion. Naturally, the authorities are trying to further totalize the system. We saw this in the pressure on independent journalists, in attempts to control the Internet. We see that the lesson of the protests of outraged Belarusians was not learnt by the authorities, they made no conclusions.

On the other hand, we see the desire of both young people and the population as a whole to change their lives and the political situation in the country. These were mostly timid protests - evidence of the timidity of the new generation of Belarusians. An example was the celebration of the 100th anniversary of the BPR, when the young representatives of the Belarusian society, the so-called “young politicians”, in my opinion, behaved very cowardly. But it is clear that discontent with the government in Belarus is manifested at all levels and among all groups of the population.

We can say that 2018 was a pre-revolutionary year, when contradictions in the country accumulated, were visible, but had not yet led to serious changes.

A similar situation is observed in Russia, where this technological, economic and political backwardness threatens to simply collapse the country just like it happened with the Soviet Union. And those who lived during the USSR, can see with a naked eye that Russia is on the same path, but with more aggressive leadership.

It is also necessary to note the very important for Belarus factor of Ukraine, which seeks to drift towards a European, democratic civilization. The independence of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine has become a phenomenon of both regional and global scale. It also affects Belarus, because the ROC, which dominates the country, is in fact already illegitimate in view of the Ukrainian processes. This will in due course affect the situation in Belarus.

- Basing on your assessment, could you predict how the events for Belarus and Belarusians will develop in 2019?

- I think that at all levels - global, regional and national - the struggle of the new with the old will intensify. The economic and technological pistol is pointing at the heads of the archaic, totalitarian rulers-losers Lukashenka and Putin.

This will determine the development of events in our country. Especially because the contradictions in the conditions of lack of economic and financial resources will be exacerbated, including the ones between Lukashenka and Putin.

And the expected formal “elections” in Belarus can be a catalyst for these processes. At the same time, we will see that various groups of the population will resist the actions of the impudent power layer, which builds palaces and residences for itself, drives Maybachs, builds cottages, while continuing to rob the population.

It is clear that this cannot last for long: the “cauldron” can simply explode. In connection with technological revolutions, the shale revolution and their influence on the prices of single products - oil products from the Russian oil, due to which the Belarusian dictatorship lives - by reducing its oil rent, a social explosion may simply occur.

This is my prognosis: this will happen either in 2019 or in 2020. In 2017, the authorities managed to suppress the protests. But experts say that the parasitic model of the Lukonomy exhausted itself by 2011, and now a kind of agony is occurring when the authorities try to keep themselves at the expense of the security forces, but do not change anything in the economy and politics.

The result may be a revolution that harmonizes the situation - so that Belarus will meet the global and regional trends of technological progress and the desire for freedom.

And we all know that no normal technological and economic development is possible without freedom. Everything else is temporary.

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